Wolf, I'm looking for sustained 75 dollar oilOk Wolf. Page 12. December presentation. Fcf profile at 65 and 75. What I am looking for is sustained 75 dollar oil. Direct 2022 fcf to debt. In 2023 they are calling for North of 550 fcf at 75. I'm looking for half that money to be directed to dividends which notionally would be 50 cents a share. At a 5% yield, that's 10 bucks and that's the half way point between a double and a multi bagger which I referenced yesterday. I don't think it's crazy talk at all to be speaking in those terms, we just need the sustained price
I don't view sustained 65 as being good for us. Yes, it obviously helps but we need to make hay in the next few years. Many oil execs are budgeting based on ranges of 65 to 70 and 70 to 75. That kind of info is out there in many places. And it's prudent for oil execs to budget based on those numbers. There are also energy analysts calling for crude pricing significantly above those numbers. No, not a guy like Nuttal, he's a salesman. When we start to consider where crude pricing could go and what sustained crude at 80, 85 or 90 (numbers well below what some credible forecasters are forecasting) it starts to get pretty juicy for us as shareholders when we think about the fcf available for dividends and forward project a, share price off of a 5% yield. So, yes, 65 helps the cause. But it doesn't do much for us versus the 75+ scenario and I'd call it a disaster or disappointment or what have you because I think there'd need to be negative macro events for us to ONLY realize sustained 65.