RE:New to this Board Hi Stu. I have been a fellow time traveller, along with most of the others on this board.
I think your summary is a good one. I would however be cautious about making PE calcs and future projections based on prices achieved in Q3 which by all accounts were sensational and very likely unsustainable on account of the supply issues out of Belarus and the energy price spike. So, to your question on future pricing, who knows, but the average over the next 5 years is likely to be a lot lower than now, but that's ok. My take is that it is mass production that can drive Verde revenues from hereon, however the price spike is great timing right now, given the company's need for additional cash to fund the expansion.
So these mining licences are vital, but hopefully forthcoming. We know from experience that the wheels turn pretty slowly in those mining departments, but the CEO seemed confident in his last few shareholder meetings, which you should try and attend BTW as he is open to answering plenty of questions, except for some of Stan's for some reason (!).
As to your question about whether there is enough demand, well we never know, but sales growth has been very good so far and so we hope so. And the CEO has the capacity to drop prices if he wants to undercut traditional potash fertilisers to win market share but has not needed to do so as yet which is encouraging.
Which leads on to another of your Qs on costs per tonne. Stan reckons in his post below that this is between $12 - $16. Plant 2 should be a bit lower cost (as I recall from a previous question to the CEO, but I cannot say I am right on this for certain). However as sales increase, so the transport costs also seem to increase due to the distance to new customers increasing. We haven't quite got to the bottom of this, but I believe that Verde subsidies a lot of the cost of transport which becomes a significant amount, not helped by farmers needing 6 times as much Verde product as they do mainstream fertiliser to do the same job due to the lower concentrations, albeit hopefully with less leaching with the Verde product.
I am not the most knowledgeable of the contributors here, and I hope others will be able to tidy up anything I have said and make additions. The prospects still look very interesting in my humble opinion, with the planets starting to align, including the ESG angle. We will also be able to draw further thoughts from an upcoming feasibility report due out in Q1, albeit already delayed, which will endeavour to put an NPV on the company based on expansion up to an eventual 25m tonnes per annum. One thing at a time I suppose!