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Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTE

Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay / Viking) and Heavy Oil Canada (Peace River / Peavine / Lloydminster). Its Eagle Ford assets are located in the core of the liquids-rich Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. The Eagle Ford shale covers approximately 269,000 gross acres of crude oil operations. Its Viking assets are located in the Dodsland area in southwest Saskatchewan and in the Esther area of southeastern Alberta. It also holds 100% working interest land position in the East Duvernay resource play in central Alberta.


TSX:BTE - Post by User

Post by red2000on Jan 03, 2022 7:22pm
595 Views
Post# 34280326

Baytex financial forecast 2022

Baytex financial forecast 2022Here are my Baytex forecast for 2022 ! (still very conservative number with a lot of upswing)
My main reason to do it, it's to evaluate the FCF and what they really can do with it in 2022.


Not included in the calculation below : Clearwater (much better netback) or any others prospect or partnership or production increase
Less financing and Unrealized fin deriv. (hedge now at 68$ instead of 52$) for 30 to 50M$
This method was use for the 1st 3 quarters of 2021, and it work (Error margin +/-1,5%)
Calculation include same metrics of Baytex for :
Netback at 61% of revenues.
AFF at 43% of Revenues and FCF very conservative at 22% of revenues, may reach easily 25% or more in 2022.


Base on 81,500 boe/d. Hedge price at 68$ and a WTI at 78$.
Revenues : 2,2B$ FCF : 540,2 M$
What they can do :
1st 6 months pay debt for 249,7 M$.
Next 6 months :
Buy back shares at 5,25$ for 28,2M out. Sh. = 148M$ (Very expensive) 
At this price better pay debt
Start paying a dividend of 0,05 per share quarterly == 564M out. Sh. X 0,05 X 2 Q = 56,4M$
Cash left : 39 M$.

Is it enough to reach 6 to 8$ per share in 2022 !!??

Others facts :
If the WTI reach for example 100$ for 6 months in 2022 this may added 150M$ in revenues and probably 30M$ in FCF.


But if it's in the full year 2023 with no hedge and 85,000 boe/d KABOUM over 3,2B in revenues !!!

Buyback shares may cost higher, but it will be easy to increase dividend to 0,10 per share per quarter !

And clear 100% of the debt !!!

As you can see this stock will fly a bit in 2022, at least 6 to 8$.

But 2023, back to 15$ +

Any comments or facts to add... !!??

Please do your DD, it's your money !!!
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