RE:I found out new OBE info...Analysis time...so what the f*ck does this mean?
Pausing Peace River is no suprise....only Jan 5 and rigs are just getting going again. I thought they would run 2 rigs in Cardium like they have been all of 2020.
Number 1.
Likely points to an agressive production BOE number for guidance. Having an extra rig in Crimson will speed it up and they are such low risk wells. OBE booked inventory is done so conservatively (one of the reasons I was buying) that they really consistently. And an extra rig makes up for the 1 in 9 well that comes in on the more marginal side.
Number 2
Cashflow has to be obviously high if they can afford this. We all knew this but it is probably positive they can afford this.
So expect a crazy high Cf number in guidance....and it wouldnt shock me if a 170-185M capex....but a crazy good FCF as CF is so good.
OBE can afford to run 3 now in Cardium.
OBE can do up to 9 wells in one month now. I dont think they goose it this hard...but even 7 wells a month..
25M a month plus spending.
Actually lol a good thing...we must be printing cash.
Number 3
This is more of a flyer...but I have to point this out.
That new rig OBE contracted for extra Crimson is heading very close towards Entrada land.
OBE has many drilling opportunties competing for capital....why to East Crimson...hmmm
Perhaps this is because OBE has sights on moving the rig to drill on Entrada land when this pad is drilled.
If OBE ever acquired Entrada they would have squeeze and scale to run 3 rigs in Cardium
Right now OBE can but it is pushing it if oil ever dropped below 74 as OBE wouldnt be FCF enough.
Number 4
Guidance is likely crazy good.
Gl tomorrow.