Experienced wrote: Obscure1 wrote: jx: Thanks for posting the link to a very worthwhile read.
The following was the main takeaway for me:
"Deutsche Bank analysts also expect buyback volume to rise next year. “Rising earnings should propel gross buybacks to a record trillion dollars in 2022,” the analysts wrote in a Deutsche Bank Research note dated Dec. 10."
Also:
"Buyback volume may rise to around $848 billion in 2021, which would exceed the record $806 billion seen in 2018"
One thing I hadn't considered in looking forward to 2022 market performance was the impact that buybacks could have on the overall market.
We have recenly witnessed the impact of SU buying via its NCIB on the SU share price now that the NY Pro desks appear to have stopped shorting the crapp out of SU.
The potential 1% tax levy on share buybacks in the States won't move the needle when it comes to buybacks, so one would think that a Trillion dollars in buybacks would play a role at mitigating the negative effect of increasing rates in 2022. I don't know how much, but it is a factor.
I would like to hear Experienced's (our resident economist) opinion on if a Trillion dollar buyback forecast influences his outlook on the market if at all.
All right. Fine, I'll take the bait...lol. You asked for it!!!
Here are my thought and comments on the article...
1....a trillion dollars in buybacks of shares will no doubt help the market compared to no buying at all. That said, while a trillion dollars seems like a lot of money, the total value of stocks traded in a year on US exchanges and NASDAQ is over 25 trillion dollars so we need to put this number into perspective
2.....If the US Fed does in fact increase interest rates like it is projecting then this would raise debt payment by businesses and consumers by about 250 billion and this is money that will offset corporate profits and less consumers have to spend on things. If you take the usual economic multipliers these numbers would be around 400 billion. So this would offset some the benefit of the share buybacks
3...in the article they mention that S&P earnings are forecasted to be up about 28% from 2018 levels and so they conclude that the market will be just fine. They seem to gloss over the fact that the rise in the stock market since 2018 has outpaced the growth in earnings and so that statement in the article is IMHO worthless and worse yet misleading.
4....the market is up more than earnings due to two main factors...
A.. interest rates are lower
B...the US Government has been setting record budgetary deficits and this accelerated in 2021 due to COVID and so we have a very accomodative monetary policy and a huge fical stimulus. Both of which may well end later this year
How long this economy built on a deck of playing cards will continue before the big bad wolf huffs and puffs and blows the house down is anybody's guess. Frankly, it has lasted longer than I thought it would but at some point the natural forces will become too great to hold back and I fear that we are nearing that point.
I felt the same way in the summer of 2006 and so while it was sunny outside, I saw storm clouds on the horizon and took action then to start moving to cash. Yep I was early but as my wife says "Lived to tell". The same thing in late 2019, I went to a large cash holding (no I didn't see COVID coming) and benefited from having a lot of cash in March 2020 and didn't follow the market down.
As far as I am concerned right now, the market is looking very tired. Take a look at the chart over the past few months - volatility but going nowhere. That is a historical signal that a change in direction is coming. Will it be right now? Probably not for another 6 months or so but most likely sometime before year end.
Sooo...back to the original question
Yes the buybacks will help but they are likely to be swamped by forces greater than the 1 trillion buybacks.