RE:TD UpgradeMy model shows that a 20% FCF implies an average annual lumber price of $650 which implies a price target using their 5.3x ratio of $53. This matches their price target.
However: if the lumber price is actually
$725 like they say here, their calculations are out of date.
I have $725 -->
29% FCF, maybe ~$70 price target, of course they would never set something this high becauset hey are risk adverse....
Also current SP prices in a long term average of $600 lumber.
| Lumber Price (USD) | EBTDA (CAD) | Quarterly Profit | Quarterly FCF | Annual FCF | 1 year FCF % | Annual PE | Share Price with PE of 5.3 | Share Price with PE of 8.5 | SP with PE of 9.29 | % Gain from Today |
| $ 500.0 | $ 30.1 | $ 24.1 | $ 24.1 | $ 96.4 | 4% | 27.1 | $ 7.82 | $ 12.54 | $ 13.71 | -69% |
| $ 550.0 | $ 88.3 | $ 70.7 | $ 60.7 | $ 242.6 | 9% | 10.8 | $ 22.94 | $ 31.58 | $ 34.51 | -21% |
| $ 600.0 | $ 146.5 | $ 117.2 | $ 97.2 | $ 388.9 | 15% | 6.7 | $ 38.05 | $ 50.61 | $ 55.31 | 27% |
| $ 650.0 | $ 204.7 | $ 163.8 | $ 133.8 | $ 535.1 | 20% | 4.9 | $ 53.16 | $ 69.64 | $ 76.12 | 74% |
| $ 700.0 | $ 262.9 | $ 210.3 | $ 170.3 | $ 681.3 | 26% | 3.8 | $ 68.28 | $ 88.68 | $ 96.92 | 122% |
| $ 750.0 | $ 321.1 | $ 256.9 | $ 206.9 | $ 827.6 | 32% | 3.2 | $ 83.39 | $ 107.71 | $ 117.72 | 169% |
| $ 800.0 | $ 379.3 | $ 303.5 | $ 243.5 | $ 973.8 | 37% | 2.7 | $ 98.50 | $ 126.74 | $ 138.52 | 217% |
| $ 850.0 | $ 437.5 | $ 350.0 | $ 280.0 | $ 1,120.1 | 43% | 2.3 | $ 113.62 | $ 145.77 | $ 159.32 | 264% |
| $ 900.0 | $ 495.7 | $ 396.6 | $ 316.6 | $ 1,266.3 | 48% | 2.1 | $ 128.73 | $ 164.81 | $ 180.13 | 312% |
| $ 950.0 | $ 553.9 | $ 443.1 | $ 353.1 | $ 1,412.5 | 54% | 1.8 | $ 143.84 | $ 183.84 | $ 200.93 | 360% |
| $ 1,000.0 | $ 612.1 | $ 489.7 | $ 389.7 | $ 1,558.8 | 60% | 1.7 | $ 158.96 | $ 202.87 | $ 221.73 | 407% |
| $ 1,050.0 | $ 670.3 | $ 536.3 | $ 426.3 | $ 1,705.0 | 65% | 1.5 | $ 174.07 | $ 221.91 | $ 242.53 | 455% |
| $ 1,100.0 | $ 728.5 | $ 582.8 | $ 462.8 | $ 1,851.3 | 71% | 1.4 | $ 189.19 | $ 240.94 | $ 263.33 | 502% |
| $ 1,150.0 | $ 786.7 | $ 629.4 | $ 499.4 | $ 1,997.5 | 76% | 1.3 | $ 204.30 | $ 259.97 | $ 284.13 | 550% |
| $ 1,200.0 | $ 844.9 | $ 675.9 | $ 535.9 | $ 2,143.7 | 82% | 1.2 | $ 219.41 | $ 279.01 | $ 304.94 | 598% |
| $ 1,250.0 | $ 903.1 | $ 722.5 | $ 572.5 | $ 2,290.0 | 88% | 1.1 | $ 234.53 | $ 298.04 | $ 325.74 | 645% |
| $ 1,300.0 | $ 961.3 | $ 769.1 | $ 609.1 | $ 2,436.2 | 93% | 1.1 | $ 249.64 | $ 317.07 | $ 346.54 | 693% |