RE:RE:RE:RE:Any technical traders following Suncor?Experienced wrote: A long time ago I read a book by these university professors who examined about 200 technical indicators and did a statistical analysis over a 50 year year period to determine if any of them had an real predictive value.
Their conclusion?
All but two of them had no predictive value accuracy of any significance. In simple terms - they don't work most of the time.
My own observations over decades of investing dating back to 1969 is that whenever I tried to rely on technical analysis, it was usually wrong.
So what beyond fundamental analysis and careful reads of Q reports to do I rely on which has worked for over the years?
1.....The Stomach Test
When I am feeling realy really good about the market and a particular stock, I sell some of my stake. When I am feeling sick about the market, I buy.
2.....Investment Discipline
Most of my investments are long term holds and I set a limit on how much of my portfolio is in one particular company. If that company is doing really well and goes up a lot and crosses my percentage limit, I take some profits.
3....Observe the World Around You
Years ago I did a lot of travelling on business. Everywhere I went I saw Home Depot Parking lots full. So I went in and talked to the people who worked there and asked how it was going and what they thought of management. They had nothing but good things to say and so I bought a bunch of it in the mid 80s. You would be surprised how much valuable information is sitting right under your nose by just looking around.
In the 90s, one of my sons and his friends were watching this cartoon called Pokeman. They told me that every kid was watching it. I found out how to invest in it and thanks to my son and his young friends I made a few bucks on it.
4....Understand Who Is and Isn't Your Friend
As a general rule I do not rely on analyst reports from investment houses - they are part of the sales organization of their firm and sole responsibility is to generate trading activity. This is especially true of the pundits on TV like on BNN or CNBC or the likes Cramer.
5.....Learn From Your Mistakes
Don't beat yourself up if you make a mistake, they are your tution fees. Keep track of the lesson learned and then apply that knowledge going foreward.
6.....Most Importantly
Don't be greedy. As the old adage in the stock market goes - pigs get slaughtered
I believe it was either Warren Buffet or his partner Charle Munger that said relying on technical analysis was similar to to trying to predict future weather in a weather forecast based on what the weather was like the day/week/month before.