RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Something big is likely in the worksI think the suggestions you have made below all have a very low probablity of actually happening.
Any fundraising is dilutive (except in the case where it is funding an anti-dilutive acquisition - a very rare situation and not one you are contemplating). Warrants or rights might be fairer to current shareholders than last years ONO but I can't see that happening to fund cancer research. If there is a reason to fund cancer due to preliminary efficacy signals in pahse 1a, there should be no problem raising funds more conventionally. And they likely already have enough money to do the phase 1b anyway. On financing, we will know a lot about how confident the company is about their cancer propsects by how they deal with the upcoming covertible expiration - if they are looking for funding to have money to pay that off, we know they are not as confident as we would hope.
I could see them selling the marketing rights to Trogarzo to Viiv who would no doubt do a much better job of selling it in a package with tehir MDR drug than TH can do alone. And if cancer is moving forward, Trogarzo is going to fade into the distance at TH. Selling the rights to Egrifta in Lipo might be possible but seems unlikely to me.
The terms of a NASH partnership deal would seem to be challenging but remember that other company that got quite a sweet NASH partnership deal recently, so maybe not. TH is clearly looking to fob off as much of the financial cost of the NASH phase III trial as they can so that does sound like a situation where there is little to no upfront cash in it for us. But it should also mean that there is no or only smallish fundraising needed if the partner is paying for much of the deal. Of course, I could dream up about 20 different plausible partnership deals for NASH so who knows what the outcome will be, if any.
A friendly acquisition is certainly possible but I think it is too early for that unless the price is one that could not be turned down. But I would be very unhappy to see that happen at this point. I am not looking to sell out at a seemingly high price after all this time when we have the opportunity to potentially have a huge price for TH in a realtively short period of time. We should know about efficacy in about 6-8 months with the phase 1b trial and, if that trial is successful in multiple cancer types, the valuation of TH is going to skyrocket. Selling the whole company before that might be attractive to the less adventursome investors int he stock but I suspect for maot of us, we are looking for the really big win. I imagine that is true for Soleus too.
SABBOBCAT wrote: Oh no, Phillipe is there... all current shareholders should go pick up some KY because they are about to get eff'd.
Jokes aside, if there are no public scientific developments in the next week, then it will be a funding meeting. My guesses (in no paticular order) would be:
- Warrant/rights offering to current shareholders with an 8-12 month expiry to extend runway for cancer. Not going to fundraise to proceed with NASH alone as it would be to dilutive.
- Asset sale. Could be Trogarzo but the price would be brutal, so I could see them packaging Egrifta to sell to a better funded NASH player while retaining some small residual royalty stream.
- Talking through the logic of a parntership in NASH where the upfront payment is low. This would mean another fundraise would still be required, so I am sure there would be lots of questions to answer via shareholder discussions.
- Friendly acquisition. A friendly takeover would need to be at a SIGNIFICANT premium, so maybe there is some creative component to it that needs to be further explained.
SPCEO1 wrote: I agree a buyout is not the most likely scenario right now but I would not be shocked if a larger pharma took a serious stake in TH as a way of laying claim to it early in case things work out well on the cancer and/or NASH front.It does not take too much ingenuity to conclude that larger pharma may be the very cashed flow positive Pfizer that has a zillion connections already to TH but, who knows, maybe it is a Chinese company?
As for the meeting with the large shareholders, there is no known agenda. Which pretty much tells us that events between now and then will likely provide the agenda. But an alternative explanationis they are just doing the rounds of the grumpy, long term shareholders to try and make sure there is a better outcome on the next board vote - seeing some board members get a low number of votes is not something that likely went over well in the boardroom and Paul is no doubt anxious to not have a replay of that. So, it makes sense to meet with the offended parties and bring them back onside. So, that may be all that it is.
Last I heard, the speakers from the company are Paul and Philippe. Christian was at best a maybe but it sounded like it was going to be a stretch for him to make it. I know the shareholders would love it if he came as he has a lot of credibility with them. I am sure he is a very busy man right about now - in fact he has been a very busy man for a long time and we have a lot to be thankful for that he has poured himself into his work in a big way for such a long time.
If Paul and Philippe show up at a meeting with shareholders, they will be talking about the business, you can be sure about that. An offering may be part of what is going down, and that would not be too surprising, but I would also not be surprised if they raised the needed cash via a partnership and/or an ownership stake being purchased by a larger pharma company, again Pfizer being the most likely.
As I said yesterday, the weight of the evidence leans heavily in the direction of something good being announced soon. That is no guarantee that we will be happy with the outcome however. For example, if they do sell an equity blocking stake to a larger pharma, at what price do they transact that? Ideally, we don't want any blocking stake being sold as we are hoping for a good outcomein cancer (and maybe even NASH) and would prefer a competitive bidding contest for TH at later date and a much higher price. So, we could be simultaneously happy and ticked off. It is TH, after all, so that may be what we should be thinking until proven otherwise!
palinc2000 wrote: Most of The positions advertised dont seem to have been filled so that would not be a problem but I dont think that a buyout is very likely at this stage...I am still wondering why a Meeting has been called with apparently no known agenda and no list of all participants.It cant be about running the business or discussing material info not yet disclosed to the public.... That leaves the other iption which is raising capital by way of a Private Placement .... hard to comment on that without knowing the terms ..
Bucknelly21 wrote: Do you really think they would do all that hiring to just settle for a buyout?