RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Something big is likely in the worksThat was a pretty good post with the exception of your assumptions about the ONO. You act like we did not discuss the need for a financing round here before it happened. It was obvious it was needed and that really was not disputed to any great degree. The issue was on the actual substance of the deal, which was atrocious (the price, warrants, broker used to get it done), and on the timing of it. So, there is no myth about the ONO. That is why we refer to it as the ONO - Odious Necessary Offering.
What I am sensing this time is that they have interesting oncology results already in hand, that they have interest from other drug companies (the company has already said so) and that whatever financing is needed may come in large part from other drug companies via partnerships than via a stock market that continues to be disinterested in TH. Hopefully, some element of that is correct, otherwise the issues you highlighted are going to keep investors in a disinterested state. Fortunately, it seems like something positive is on the burner.
jfm1330 wrote: The myth of the supposedly awful financing is perpetuated here. It was certainly a frustrating dilution, but we are almost a year later and still without the meaningful news that is needed to push the SP higher. So it is foolish to think that this financing was not necessary and that it would have been possible to make it with much less dilution. This is pure wishful thinking that does not want to die.
A year later we can see they made the responsible move because there was not any imminent big news to change the game. They needed the cash, and the financial safety it was providing. A year later we are still in a lot of uncertainty. They need excellent results in oncology, otherwise, there will be another very dilutive financing this year. NASH at this point is a worrisome project for a small company like Thera. If it's all they are left with and they decide anyway to go forward alone with it, it will be more than a dilution. It will be a flood that will make the last financing look very good.
A shareholder now needs to believe in a positive outcome with the SORT1+ oncology platform, because it is the only thing the company owns that could lead to higher SP and low dilution in the next year. Remember that the 50 M$ convertible is still there to be reimbursed in 2023. Going forward alone in NASH without positive results in oncology, and as a consequence without a much higher SP, is the road to a lot of dilution. Another option would be to fall back on the two approved drugs, cut the costs, and continue to run this small business. The problem is that I don't think that Levesque accepted the CEO job to do just that, and even doing that would mean dilution to reimburse the convertible.
I think it is important to understand the situation the company is in. In the Q3 press release they stated that they have enough cash for at least the next 12 months. They had 51.5 M$ as of August 31, 2021. So even without clear efficacy results from the phase Ia, they could continue with phase Ib. That being said, it is clear something really positive needs to happen. I repeat that over and over, but they need to come with real positive results, either in oncology, or a partnership in NASH with meaningful upfront money, or both. All this stock promotion thing, and financial market dealings are in play if management has something real to work with.
SPCEO1 wrote: I can certainly understand the frustration but you do have a number of incorrect takes in your post. Nobody knows what the company may or may not say or when, we are all just making educated guesses based onthe available evidence and our best understanding of it, which could easily prove incorrect.
No large shareholders had any idea ahead of time about the specifics of that horrible share offering last year. Anyonepaying attention knew a deal was coming at some point soon, as we talked about here, but no one would have imagined they would do such an awful deal. Clearly, the brokers they were working with new the specifics of the ONO ahead of time but that is always true, of course, and they are then insiders who cannot trade in the shares.
If there is any good news, as I have speculated about, we will all hear it at the same time via a PR and most likely followed by a conference call if the info is significant enough.
I am not sure TH would agree with you that I am too nice after my weekly Grumpy Grader updates which contained a lot of company criticism and my massive criticism of the ONO which certainly led to a minor shareholder revolution last year. But I am glad you still think I am too nice! I certainly prefer to be too nice and hope whatever the company might have to say sometime soon will allow me to revert to form. I have already put the Grumpy Grader into hibernation and hope he can stay there.
TH management have done a lot of things right and a lot of other things, primarily in their capital markets strategy, very, very wrong. The company is a much more interesting company now than it was two years ago, and we have been in the midst of a huge marekt bubble, and somehow they managed to mismanage that opportunity to let the stock shine like just about all others! That was really ugly and it remains ugly. So, you are entitled to your frustration and are welcome to express it. Let's hope that whatever might be on the near term horizon will help more than make up for the past major errors.
scarlet1967 wrote: While there are wild speculations about these meetings it's worth remembering last January they issue the good PR and then two days later they did the offering! They didn't release multiple news in timely fashion and then they came out with the good PR! Does anyone think the offering deal was put together in two days? My take is no and yes they presented all those news to those institutions involved in the offering before making it public. If this is another similar move as a shareholder for me it doesn't really matter whether they release the "news" before or after those private meetings what does concern me most is if this has anything to do with another low ball deal. Again I hope it is all speculations but surely it is worrisome if they are considering an offering too soon too cheap. Another never ending issue is the fact that the company hasn't issued a PR for weeks , their investor presentation has been down for a long time and now they are arranging meetings with some institutional investors who are already invested in the company and apparently they will issue a"PR" before which will be likely "good news" if true why? How about the rest of the investors? Already invested or future investors! Why can't this company step out of their little comfort zone and address the whole market? Why all these behind closed doors meetings rather than starting to be transparent and let the market know in timely manner what is happening. Stop the radio silence so folks don't need to constantly speculate about your future making a speculative investment an impossible one. So no they won't go to jail but yes no one knows whether the company releases information to general market before discussing it behind those closed doors pre announced or not. Please don't get me wrong as this is nothing personal at all but you seem to be too nice and sometimes that is a quite a disadvantage when one is surrounded by not as nice people, last year in February Leah made some encouraging comments about some changes yet nothing so I voted the chair woman and few of her mates out even after all the rebranding promises because I don't trust people who brake promises this year I will vote against same people regardless of share price, clinical success, blockbuster partnership deals because even though the share price could appreciate by x percentage it would be much fairer that appreciation would start at x percentage from higher levels but unfortunately we are not at those levels because of radio silence, closed meetings lack of engagement with market and "silly" mistakes THRX has been making. For instance they put on LinkedIn CROI meting starting in January when it is actually February. I am sorry for my negative attitude but it is very frustrating.
SPCEO1 wrote: The idea that the company is going to tell these large shareholders something that has not already been announced publically has been stated several times already and, well, youight want to consider not saying such a silly thing anymore. That just is not going to happen since the TH executives I am pretty sure are not anxious to go to jail.
My best guess is something will be announced before those meetings and the company will put together a new corporate presention, hold a conference call and then hit the road to talk with these major shareholders and bask in the glory of whatever they have announced.
scarlet1967 wrote: If I wanted to speculate and that's all we can do right now my take is what others have said either they will be trying to keep large shareholders sweet before next annual vote or preparing them for a fund raising I am not sure why they would initiate these meetings behind closed doors in order to inform those share holders of any news good or bad? I certainly hope I am wrong but any developments related to oncology or NASH don't need to be discussed with shareholders they could simply issue PRs.
palinc2000 wrote: I was assuming that the carreer section on the website was accurate,,,but even if it is not the last version I think we know that there are still many unfilled positions,,,To be clear I am not predicting a take over ,,,,,What do you think id the company s goal in convening a meeting with major shareholders?
scarlet1967 wrote: It's hard to know which positions have been filled, there is a discrepancy between their career section on the website and postings on LinkedIn. I am not sure the website gets updated as often as LinkedIn. Just in December they recruited two scientists also it seems like they are not just hiring but also laying off people as some employees on their LinkedIn account are not listed there now. At one point there were 114 people there and now down to 109. Point is why all the recent reshuffling if they are planning to sell the company?
palinc2000 wrote:
Most of The positions advertised dont seem to have been filled so that would not be a problem but I dont think that a buyout is very likely at this stage...I am still wondering why a Meeting has been called with apparently no known agenda and no list of all participants.It cant be about running the business or discussing material info not yet disclosed to the public.... That leaves the other iption which is raising capital by way of a Private Placement .... hard to comment on that without knowing the terms ..
Bucknelly21 wrote: Do you really think they would do all that hiring to just settle for a buyout?