RE:RE:The bones are telling me an 8.00 US offer is coming soon . I think the questions that need to be answered in order for investors to expect a solid market valuation of 1$B Cad are in place. Mainly, that is the new involvment of Li Ka Shing.
IF the data continues to come in solid he might just either grant us $$ to get to the point of BTD and commercialization. Or he'll make us that 'low' offer. He might not be successful as Pharma eyes have been on TLT for a while. I think that 1$B Cad offer could come fairly soon. I think we are easily worth $2B US as an independent company, just for NMIBC late stage. Though it might take a cpl more years for that. More indications though means more interest and higher valuations and possibiloith of a price $$ war from the Pharmas. :-)
CancerSlayer wrote: Think we would need an FDA approval for that price ; )...
Have to ask yourself how do we assign value to our pipeline at either the BTD stage or the FDA approval stage. I don't think a BTD would move the needle nearly enough to satisfy my wishes. Even with an FDA approval, I think Big Pharma tries to sell us that "single pipeline drug" valuation gobbledygook. But we all know better re: the potential this single drug has across "multiple" indications. So difficult to put a value on an underappreciated drug/therapeutic approach that can potentially perform on par or superiorly to multiple drugs (pipeline or approved)?
Even for just high-risk CIS NMIBC, I estimate ~7,000 new cases annually (in Canada & US alone), which would yield a $700 million (USD) market at $100K per two dose treatment...just my estimated numbers. With at least 2+ "mainstream" competitors in the market, I would be very happy to capture 20% of this market by year two or three ($140 million annually)...didn't assign a higher value due to the fact that our type of ACT differs from your typical type of mainstream treatment & thus may be more of a challenge to win over early acceptance...despite any possible Big Pharma ties & the possibility of having superior efficacy at a lesser cost & with fewer side effects. Considering the above projected revenue numbers & projected R&D costs/cash position for this particular indication, which utilizes a more novel approach, I would put our pre-rev sp at ~$3 US post FDA approval....based on our sp history, this may be a more realistic number, but still way undervalued imo considering the potential one-drug-fits-all scenario. BWTFDIK & all imo.