RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:HEXO has no knight in shinning armor coming..... I do appreciate something that resembles a proper response. Thanks for that. You are entitled to your opinion when it comes to what HEXO is worth. I am entitled to mine. A question I have that you can not answer is back in November OCS.ca dropped pricing on the majoirty of HEXO flower products. Is this just the OCS website or is there a domino effect? As in how much of the 20%+ reduction is being absorbed by HEXO? All but one Redecan flower off memory (sour diesel 28g value bag) was reduced. That does not bode well for immediate revenues. The ones that truly matter for HEXO at the moment. No positive EBITDA is not good. Reduced pricing in the first month of Q2 on large amount of products + still no Redecan in QC (why? FAIL) + losing market share in Ontario re concentrates + reduced exposure in several fairly high traffic dispensaries in the GTHA (search and follow your own websites) = not good to be polite.
What does HEXO have that is truly of value to their competitors? Markets share, yes but no HEXO = immediate increase in market share for everyone. The market is still saturated in flower and HEXO does not have a vault of premium flower that people want. They have Redecan Redee machinery . What value does that have? Outside of that I do not know what in particular others would compete for. HEXO still has a mess with all their facilities still running. Facilities that will need to be sold, likely for a reduced price as is the norm these days. So is taking on the mess that HEXO is right now worth paying a premium for? And how many companies would take on HEXO as is? Tilray? CGC? Would they 'fight' for HEXO? HA; they are likely loving this! What does HEXO have that their competitors want or need? Nothing but Redee tech in my opinion. Molson is the majority owner of the standalone company TRUSS. They likely buy HEXO out and if they want a new cannabis partner they will find one. But I do not know those contracts. I know Molson is the majority owner and that matters. If Molson wanted to buy HEXO they would have already. I believe Scott came over from Truss to protect their investment. Who knows? Not you not me.
I do hope HEXO sorts it out btw. I do not want to see them fail. I am not crying over the losses I generated for my account. I am pissed at their incompetence to say the least but I took the risk with them, that is on me.
As far as your advice re dollar cost avg - if people who started to invest in HEXO since say the spring followed your advice they would likely have never sold a share nor will ever be selling a share imo but that comes down to how much did they buy and when. If they built a position 5% by the summer averaging down and not selling how much of their account should they allow to be allocated to HEXO? Buying in a speculative market and not being willing to reduce your exposure as warning bells are blowing is
extremely dangerous but you do you. Spreadsheets are great but they do not substitute paying attention to the company you are investing in.... When I trade speculatively such as cannabis I assess the companies based on factors that I am in favour of. Such as product quality, demand, market exposure.. My way of speculative trading has done me good. It starts with not being afraid to take a hit. Look over the past few years and you will see for yourself why when speculative trading one should be prepared to take a hit and sit on the sidelines. HEXO blew it in Q1 and there is no reason imo to expect a positive Q2. Maybe they have something going for them? There was a
delayed shareholder meeting notice provided. So March 8 was it not? A long time between now and then. A long time for this stock to get worked down. Without legit reason for optimism following your dollar cost advice would put me and many others in a real cr@p spot. For example my avg sale was around 1.12 or so? Where are we now? Believe you me I am more than happy with averaging down when appropriate or dumping and waiting. Cannabis remains a massive risk. HEXO is in the worst spot of all large Canadian LPs. But you do you. Me hopefully I keep going the way I have been. All good over here.
Cause we seem to have a thing going over my share status, I bought a chunk of WCP with HEXO sales. So far so good. Keep starring at spreadsheets maybe they will tell you HEXO has a 240 million dollar problem that they have been trying to sort out since late summer. If they can sort this out and get Redecan into QC maybe I will rebuild my position? Till then for me way to much risk of creditor protection and me having my a good amount of money tied up until who knows when and who knows if and/or what I may recoup. For me at this point it is only what I can lose in full and not care about and on to the next one....
quinlash wrote: The value of a buy ouf offer is not based solely on the current shareprice but also includes the value of the company based on future sales potential. I am not going to say that this number would be easy to come up with as the Cannabis sector is still emerging however with the 3 new acquistions made by HEXO in 2021 we can expect those numbers to be higher going into the upcoming QTR reports. The last 2 reports were historical highs for the company and these did not include all of the incremental sales from those acquistions.
As for you trading, I apologize, I went back briefly and noticed you indicaed you did a partial sell of shares. I certainly hope you did that over your current average as the result in a partial sell under your average will increase your new Dollar-Cost-Average price. Any partial sale of shares
over your current average drops your average on the remaining shares. One quick example i have stated before is selling 50% of your shares at anything over a double of your current average... the end result is that you will have shares remaining with no money associated with the shares. If / when the opportunity presents itself on HEXO it may be something to consider, if not then I would suggest researching more about Dollar Cost Average trading on future investments.
Running potential trades on a spreadsheet prior to excuting them is very helpful.
Take care Rocket.
Q
ridingrockets wrote: As I said any 'premium' will not be much of a premium if any at all. They are starring down BANKRUPTCY protection. Find me companies that get paid premiums that have the financial issues that HEXO is currently faced with. BTW where did I say their SP will go down on acquisition? What I did say is if there is value in the deal, if the acquired company (HEXO) is starring down BK it would likely be the acquiring company SP that would stand to benefit the most. That is true. Again that is if there is perceived value within the market when assessing the deal....
But thats ok you can keep lying to people all you want. Just like how you post that I sold all my holdings - I never said that. The last time I mentioned my holdings I said I was down to 25% of my initial count. On a couple of occasions you have done this. Why? Why would you point out to others that I sold? Does that mean I no longer know what I am talking about? Or are you implying there is no reason for me to have a voice here so therefore ignore me? Hillarious when I never said I sold out in full. I said sold half and than I said sold another half of that.... Now you are implying that I said the acquired company SP will go down. Again I never said that. Why do you lie to people Q? Like saying you don't have time to post. Why not post tomorrow? Why does it have to be immediately after I post? Does tomorrow not exist for you? Will you not be spending hours of your life posting here like you always do?
As I mentioned, as is, I would be surprised to see a .95 price - that is CAD btw as HEXO is currently .83 CAD - That would be a premium similar to what HEXO gave 48N - why would HEXO who is in a similar position to what 48N was in would be any different? I can also see a scenario where it is a wash - as in they get bought for the avg SP price over the last X amount of days. For shareholders that is better than creditor protection...
They are over the barrel at the moment.
Until HEXO has a resolution to their debentures they are hooped. Who knows maybe an American company is targetting HEXO and that is why they are being bashed/hit as hard as they areY There are few companies that could buy HEXO in Canada so low risk in losing them to someone else. That would be hillarious. An American company that has ties to the debenture financers takes HEXO over...
You don't have time to post? You post all day long - I will be back tomorrow. You have time to provide examples of companies in financial duress being paid premiums.
Funny stuff: This is from the link you posted:
Of course, there are exceptions to the rule. Namely: if a target company's stock price recently plummeted due to negative earnings, then being acquired at a discount may be the only path for shareholders to regain a portion of their investments back. This holds particularly true if the target company is saddled with large amounts of debt, and cannot obtain financing from the capital markets to restructure that debt.
Its like they are talking about HEXO, no? lol? quinlash wrote: Rocket,
I am sure I could come up with at least 6 or more examples of a target companies SP increasing once an acquistion is announced but I simple do not have time to make the post. If you care to post one or two examples of a SP going down on an acquistion announcement then i would certainly find that interesting to see.
for your reference, here is a quick link to what I am refering too and have often witnessed myself over the years
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/203.asp