RE:Is there a disconnect between FEC and OYLliquorwolf wrote: FEC owns approximately 80% of OYL, or $672mm, reflecting 67% of their market cap. If you crunch the numbers $840mm value of OYL or 20% equates to $4,2 billion. FEC has a market cap of $1billion. So just subtracting the $672mm from $1 billion you get $328mm for a company with a cash flow of $300mm producing 40,000 bpoe a day. FEC is loaded with cash as reflected in their two bolt on acquisions.. Total debt of only $400mm.
Please give your take on this analysis which will be gladly accepted. Not trying to diss anyone here nor advise anyone to buy or sell.
I appears to me the disconnent is widening. using C$ to line up with the info above and comparing current market caps. It still appears that you buy FEC and you get 80% of CGX and 33% of the concession for free. The current netbacks on FEC have to be close to $50US or greater, they were $38US in 3Q and they are producing about 40,000 barrels a day. That thus $2Mil U$ a day and they should make more than $100Mil in 2022 on their port and pipeline ownership. CGX has to be over $100Mil in debt now with no way to pay the big extra costs with the Kawa rig with zero income per day.
Below are current market caps and more in C$ to go with the quote above. There is less than $200Mil between market caps and CGX could easily have a higher market cap than FEC in a single day based on recent massive price swings.
On a sale of either CGX alone or FEC with CGX enbedded, the disconnect should reconnect and FEC get 80% of whatever CGX shares are plus paid handsomely for their 33% of the concession.
Whatever happens there is going to be some extreme volatility in both stocks soon.
Comments Please?
| Security Type | Equity |
| Shares Issued | 95,082,975 |
| Market Cap | 941,321,000 |
| Year High | 10.94 |
| Year Low | 3.46 |
| Annual Earnings/Share | 0.63 CAD |
| P/E Ratio | 15.71 |
| Annual Dividend/Share | |
| Annual Dividend Yield | |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2020-04-01 |
| Security Type | Equity |
| Shares Issued | 287,588,662 |
| Market Cap | 750,606,000 |
| Year High | 2.75 |
| Year Low | 0.465 |
| Sector | 10102020 - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
Please see TSX-V for dividend and earnings information
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