some comparisons to Q3 100% basis... back of envelope calculations
production Q3 = 34.5m Q4 = 29m ... Q4 = -5.5m lbs (-19%)
sales. Q3 = 32.4m Q4 = 24m ... Q4 = -8.3m lbs (-35%)
copper price avg Q3 = $4.26. Q4 = $4.40 (est) ... Q4 +$0.14/lb
(Moly credit $0.25/lb of copper sold)
Revenue Q3 = $132m
Revenue Q4 (est) = 24m lbs x $4.65/lb (copper and Moly) = $112m
Add in $18m of interest expense in Q3 that won't be on the books in Q4
$112m revenue + $18m less expense = Revenue Q4 of $130m
- If the $18m debt payment adds into the TKO 75% portion of income only (I'm unclear), then hit to EPS that reduced sales will have is virtually $0.
- fixed costs ratio to revenue will have a greater effect on EPS so I'm calling for $0.04 EPS in Q4