RE:RE:RE:RE:Thanks Fauxtomato: New Petrinex Data for SDEOne more copied comments I posted on the BIR board as it relates to SDE, and my groups transition to SDE after a nice run on profit from BIR, cheers.
41, here are some facts you can actually take to the bank regarding shorts and to get my point across just look at the volume of shorts on Sun-Cor and their share price is not affected at all. Most short positions are institutions who hedge there price targets with shorts in large blocks, good example with BIR last short position trades today 5, National Bank 3, Scotia Bank 2. Over 90% of these large short positions by institutions are never covered, they know the metrics involved unlike us peons, fact. It all comes down to metrics used in valuing a company's worth therefore likely share price. In BIR's peer group comparisions of EV/EBITDA, Advantage, Peyto, Storm, Birchcliff, Crew, NuVista. Kelt, Spartan Delta, Paramount and Pipestone as examples, Monetary EV per flowing barrel is a big one when evaluating, it is one of the highest in this peer group which is not good, most affected by net debt + Net W/C and until that changes real appreciation will struggle. Again I keep hearing this unhedged blah, blah blah on the board all fine and dandy except for debt. The lower the EV/EBITA factor the more value the company has therefore the richer likelyhood of grander share price. Among the peers noted, Advantage the highest at 6.7, and Birchcliff second 6.3 on the low end Pipestone at 4.8 and Spartan Delta at 3.3. Guess which companies are the most undervalued therefore have the most to gain in share price appreciation? Other important metrics all monetary, Debt/Flowing barrel, EV per flowing BOE, EV per BOE reserves, ev/pv10, etc. to name a few. And I could go on in comparisons with technical fundamentals. Here's a link worth reading for some understanding and education of metrics industry analysts use to determine company value. 5 Common Trading Multiples Used in Oil and Gas Valuation (investopedia.com) Birchcliff rates among the 2-3 poorest (highest metric multiples), Spartan Delta (among the 2 lowest) and that's why I completely flowed all BIR capital into SDE after my technical targets were reached. No contest as it stands now and 6-12 months out for which company has the best chance for the greatest share appreciation. Not down on BIR at all just felt it's had a good run to date and I profited well, and SDE in my case had the most opportunity going forward for best overall appreciation as I stated in a previous post percentage wise.