Too excited !!! Forecast 2022 reload !!!Just reload my homemade
very conservative calculation with new settings :
1) Avg. price of all boe/d 78$ CDN for the 1st 6 months.
2) Avg. price of all boe/d 100$ CDN for the last 6 months of 2022.
3) 1st 6 months all FCF pay down debt. FCF at only 24% of Revenues !
4) Q3 + Q4 : Dividend of 0,05/Sh. per Quarter.
5) Also in Q3 and Q4 Buyback shares for 5% === 28,2 M Out. Sh. at an avg. : 5,25$.
6) Include Hedge at 68$ for 42% of production of 81,500 boe/d.
Note: As you can see I am not taking care of all others factors, Exchange rate, WCS, Nat gaz or NGL price, interest saving, etc.. and CLEARWATER not added. !
I used this method with monthly WTI price for each quarter in 2021 an my error margin was only 1,2%.
ROLL THE DICES....
| Description | Details | Boe/d : 81 500 |
| Avg. WTI $ - 2022 | yearly | 78$ - 100$ |
| Revenues | Yearly | 2 354 476 320 $ |
| NetBack | 61% X Rev. | 1 436 230 555 $ |
| Ajust. Fund Flow | 43% X Rev. | 988 880 054 $ |
| FCF | 24% X Rev. | 517 984 790 $ |
| Debt paid | 20% X AFF or else | 239 505 354 $ |
| Buy back | 5,25$ X 28,2M | 148 050 000 $ |
| Dividend | 0,10/ Sh | 56 400 000 $ |
| Cash left | Yearly | 74 029 436 $ |
| | | Debt Q1 Q2 |
| | | Buyback + div Q3 Q4 |
So what is your Share/price value if that happen ??? For me, a minimum call between 6 to 8$ !!!
Probably on a bumpy road !!! Ending dec. 2021, I expect to see with Year End Results an Enterprise Value of 4B$ !
Which is worthing per share : 4B$ divided by 564M out. Sh. === 7,09$ still without financial ratio use on TSX stock !!!
GL LONGS, we deserve it !