RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Good Morning Never seen that one before, but that bonehead should of rejected that takeoff way back in the video. He stalled it! Poor decision making, by an airline pilot.
As part of training and recurrently, we go over accident scenarios, big airliners going down and why did it happened (called CRM) There are some pretty messed up accidents and you just go WTF were they thinking. Why didn't someone break the chain. Checkout KLM in Tenerife, Canary Islands. Most casualties in an aircraft accident to date. It's messed up, makes you cringe.
Buddy had plenty of opportunity but Ignored all signs the signs...I can make it over those trees, didn't have the airspeed to climb.
Sorry guys, much more fun than talking stocks lol. At least a break from it anyway.
Joke - How do you know a pilot is in the room?
"Don't worry, he will let you know haha"
Have a good weekend all!
V
CommonCentsforDollars wrote: They were all Pilots that had 5000+ Flight Hours besides Halladay that had 700 Hours of flight time. Majority of the accidents were by pilots that were also experienced on a variety of different aircraft. That is all I was saying.
The crashes weren't by newbie pilots as one would expect with the target market of this particular plane..... 1 of the 7 accidents of the Icon A5 happened to be recorded on video. This was flown by an "Airline Transport Pilot". I watch the video and think, wtf were you thinking pal !!! Hard to believe this guy is an Airline transport pilot....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHvyjqSS1nU
Ventura2020 wrote: There are plenty of aircraft out there that had design flaws. One just recently (Max) But none like the Widowmaker! A rocket with some little wings on it.
Germans lost 292 of 916 aircraft and 116 pilots from 1961 to 1989, nicknaming it the Widowmaker, from the German public.
I did an interview many years ago. I asked this old timer...any accidents or incidents?
He said - Just one, I ejected out of a F-104 Starfighter after rotation.
I spit my coffee out and said, holy sh!t! Your hired!
It all depends how you view an experienced pilot.
Kinda like trading stocks, do you do it once or twice every 2 weeks, hobby, buy and hold, just on sunny days or is it your profession?
One thing you can be assured, the initial thoughts are, poor decision making by the pilot. Ask Sully!
Kinda like stocks, poor decision making by the trader or is there really a flaw in what is happening to a certain stock.
Cheers,
V
CommonCentsforDollars wrote: Your memory is on point Sky in regards to the baseball player. Went through the Icon A5 accident reports last night and tt was Roy Halladay that crashed his Icon in conjunction with a cocktail of drugs.
Seven accidents to date with the Icon and surprisingly most of them were by experienced pilots that just made poor judgement decisions. The accident that surprised me the most was by the designer of the A5 himself trying to do a 180 turn in a tight canyon.
Thanks for the input Sky. I appreciate that. Cheers
skyplt wrote: I recall the first time I saw the Icon...I think it was in Oshkosh around 2012. I remember being taken aback with it. I believe a short while later some fairly famour baseball player crashed his into the Gulf of Mexico. I like the aircraft and what it can do. I am more familiar with the Seawind. There are some peculiarities related to pusher props but that is beyond this forum. Pretty hefty price tag if I recall. All things being said I am more of a Piper Cub on floats fan (and they can still be got for 50K).
As for Tilray (and the sector in general), I am not expecting any sort of dramatic VW or Gamestop type of short squeeze. Rather, a gentle upslope (please...let that upslope begin sooner than later)...unless there is a red herring like CBD ingestion reduces chances of Covid (look how fast they got the mRNA vaccine approved) or a major whale jumps on board Tilray. I believe Mr. Simon is the guy to do something like that which is why I still hold Tilray. He better do something to justify his premium compensation! Perhaps Germany will legalize sooner than later, but I lived in Germany for several years, politics move very slooooooooooooooowly. BTW, right now I am reviewing the Carnot Cycle of adiabatic and isothermal. It is ironic how close it resembles stock cycles; though I would prefer COM stood for Conservation of Money rather than Conservation of Mass. All the best. Back to studying.
CommonCentsforDollars wrote: Good morning Sky. Sounds like a heavy duty course to me.
As hevin has pointed out the dailly short volumes are out of hand. When a day goes by with 51% of the entire volume being sold short it sure makes it difficult for the SP to move up.
Appears they are pinning it down to put the fear of god into Retail holders while also removing any bounces fairly quickly. Bears are in control. As you pointed out we will need some sort of catalyst in order to put real Bull pressure on Shorty. What the catalyst will be is anyone's guess at this point. IS still has long hair... who knows...
As it sits right now the most pressure on Shorty is Shorty themselves. That in itself could explain the slow melt back up end of day Friday. I expect that was a short covering rally, which is good and also can also be bad. Closing it 1 cent below the priors days Close allows them to push it into the Red much more easy VS a Close near the low of the day.
On a completely unrelated topic and since I know you are a pilot. Do you have an opinion on Icon A5? Curious what your take is on this unique plane. Cheers man.
https://www.iconaircraft.com/ thanks
momo
skyplt wrote: Good morning Momo. I am taking an online course on thermodynamics and am visiting here for short breaks and a bit of distraction between wading through Conservation of Energy principles.
I totally get your take on the shorts and how high the percentage of the float it is. My view is we are waiting/hoping for some sort of catalyst that will turn this ship around. Though nobody can really predict what that catalyst might be, I would be curious what your educated guess (or top three) as to which event/s that could occur to turn that ugly 11 month chart around.
CommonCentsforDollars wrote: Hope all is well Sky. Happy New Year to you and your wife! You want a fact, budfox sold at $10 calling for $6 last December and Aphria shot up to $39 and Tilray $67.
People posted what they sold the very day they sold, but those become "fake posts". When you point out where he is incorrect there is just childish deflection with the endless name calling and more story telling. It is similar to communicating with a 4 year old.
Should I and everyone else sold absolutely everything when she peaked. For sure!! Did I hold a good portion that I should have sold, unfortunately yes.
That 0.838 valuation comparison was the holdback for many to do the FULL unload. This is the beauty of hindsight, knowing what moves should have been made. Nobody on this board played the short squeeze
perfectly. Nobody. That includes budfox that sold BEFORE it rocketed. Anyone can call down every day of their life. Broken clocks are correct twice a day.
As you pointed out, all the cannabis charts are pretty much the same. The heaviest Short positions by far in this Sector are TLRY and CGC. A tonne needs to be covered. Tilray market cap is 4 Billion USD and roughly 600 Million dollars worth of Shorty needs to be covered. A 600 million open short position is peanuts on a company like TSLA with a gigantic market cap. A 600 Million Dollar open short position on a market cap of 4 Billion is VERY SIGNIFICANT. Anyone that doesn't understand that is a foolish drunken sailer.
cheers
momo
skyplt wrote: I browse this site once or twice a week as, unfortunately, I now own more Tilray than I should. Ironically, I sold some ENB and WCP in late December to buy more shares of Tilray at 9.10CDN in an attempt to dollar cost average. I believed, and still believe, Tilray under 10 is a good buy, but seeing 8CDN on Jan 7 was a bit of a blow.
Regarding Budd and Common: I have followed Aphria since Privateer days and see grains of truth in both of your narratives, and some interpretation to suit your specfic thesis. A bit of advice guys...your sparring would be much more interesting if you avoided the personal slams. I am learning a lot from the debate, but wince at the name calling. It is possible to be on opposite sides of a debate but still be respectful. In many ways some of the information being presented is just like many in the press suggesting Tilray bought out Aphria where the truth is Aphria actually bought Tilray but kept the name. Any fact can be twisted to support one's bias.
Budd, though your price predictions have been fairly accurate (I truly wish I sold in November when it was above 16, my DCA prior to my 9.10CDN buy in December was around 15, it is now 14CDN) what I do not see you accounting for is That every LP has virtually the same 1 year chart. Does each have their unique reasons? It is the one question that lingers in the back of my mind...how much of Tilray's price decline has been due to macro forces (like SAFE and MORE apparently stalling) like the rest of the LPs, and how much attributable to internal forces like insider selling. If this price decline was Tilray specific (like it was Aphria specific during the Hindenburg days) I would subscribe to your argument. But this time around we do not see Canopy achieving new highs while Aphria tries to prove they have an address in Jamaica. All the LPs had a miserable year.
My view (and so far it has cost me a bundle) is any sort of catalyst will be in the form of M&A activity. Though Germany and Europe may play a role, watching the politics in the USA gives me little hope of much change on the government front. I see some of these LPs on life support (primarily HEXO) and will either go bankrupt or be taken over. I am not sure whether there is much appetite for dilution.
When I look to the last three years I cannot believe some of the mistakes I made. For example, I distinctly recall seeing WCP at one dollar (remember when a barrel of oil was trading at MINUS 10 dollars) and thinking I should sell some of my APHA at 6CDN to pick up on that. I did for for some, but not as much as I should. WCP is closing in on 9CDN and Tilray lingers in the 8s. Wow. I sold a lot of my wife's APHA at 15CDN (missed the Feb spike) and bought ENB at 40CDN. ENB is now sitting at 52CDN and she has got a nice dividend payment every three months.
The bottomline question for me is whether I think Tilray is going below 5USD (as you suggest Budd) or to 20CDN (where my sell orders are, down from an optimistic 30CDN). The truth is, I have no idea. Fortunately none of this is held on margin (I had a lot of APH on margin when Hindenburg broke and I darn near lost everything) so I have the "luxury" of holding. I am neither buying or selling. I truly have no idea from one day to the next whether we are going to finish green or red. Yesterday was a fine example...when I checked in during the AM it was around 8.40CDN and drifting lower...I got busy (with work) and did not look again until after the close and saw 9.60CDN, one penny below the open. That type of price movement (on no news) confounds me. As an aside, though it seems like a red herring, I truly hope there is some truth to CBD having some anti Covid capacity if taken orally. Now that would drive the USA into legalization in a big way as well as bring big pharma in. Alas, one can dream.
So, thanks to Budd and Common for your debates. It's difficult to know which facts are facts...but that is not specific to just you two, every site I go to (CBC, CNN, CNBC, FOX, Globe and Mail) has a different version of the "truth." All the best...Sky.