I wonder if CNQ could take over SUI was looking at an overlay of the 5 year charts of SU and CNQ (yahoo.com>>>SU:to>>>full screem>>>5 year chart>>>comparison>>>add CNQ)
SU traded at a premium to CNQ for two years leading up to the pandemic.
It is easy to understand CNQ coming back faster than SU as oil prices moved up. However, with SU's downstream running at about 93% of pre-covid levels in Q3 and certainly higher in Q4, there is no logical BUSINESS explanation for the divergence that we are seeing in the share price of the two companies.
The dramatic reduction of the SHORT position on SU was very revealing imo. I eagerly look forward to seeing the updated short position on SU as of Jan 15th as I think it will either confirm that the shorts have left for easier targets, or we are in for more of the same. I can't imagine that shorts would be wanting to swim upstream against SU's Q4 numbers, but I have been wrong before (more than I can count).
I have to wonder if the SU BoD aggressively worked its NCIB in 2021 and then doubled down on the NCIB when it reported its Q3 numbers out of concern that the company is a takeover target. Anyone can see that the street hates SU (if you can't, go to the link above for a clear picture).
CNQ started benefitting from the rebound in the price of oil and nat gas well before SU and it continues to gush cash today. It wouldn't surprise me at all in CNQ decided to use some of that cash to start mopping up SU shares.
CVE absorbed Husky when the pandemic hit. Husky had been hammered by the crash in oil prices, but so had CVE. As such, I think it was a merger of convenience/opportunity.
The SU share price has obviously rebounded since the early days of the pandemic, but CNQ has almost lapped SU.
Imagine a bigger CNQ with its superior mgmt team operating 1.5mm barrels per day with SU's upgraders and refineries and downstream. Now that would be a powerhouse.