RBC Notes January 19, 2022
Forest Products
US housing starts: Scorching finish to 2021
Impact
Positive: December housing starts were above expectations – The US Census Bureau released new residential construction statistics for December. Housing starts were above expectations at 1,702k SAAR vs. consensus at 1,650k SAAR, while housing permits were also above expectations at 1,873k SAAR (vs. consensus at 1,705k). Single-family starts of 1,172k were down 2.3% m/m while multi-family starts of 524k were up 13.7% m/m. Homebuilder confidence decreased -1 point m/m to 83, which is the first decrease in four months as inflation weighed on sentiment.
Highlights
December US housing starts of 1,702k (SAAR) were above consensus at 1,650k SAAR – Total starts were up 2.5% y/y and up 1.4% m/m from the revised November figure of 1,678k (revised slightly lower from 1,679k SAAR). On a regional basis, the South represented 54% of total starts vs. 21% in the West, 17% in the Midwest and 8% in the Northeast. On a y/y basis, starts in the South were up 9.3% y/y, while the West was down 18.1% y/y. The Midwest was up 17.1% y/y, while the Northeast was basically flat at +0.7% y/y. For December, single-family starts represented 68.9% of total starts (vs. 70.4% in 2021 and 71.8% in 2020). The lower proportion of single-family new residential construction is significant since single-family housing starts typically consume 3x the amount of wood products vs. multi-family starts.
US housing permits of 1,873k (SAAR) were above consensus at 1,705k SAAR – Total permits were up 6.5% y/y and up 9.1% m/m against the November figure of 1,717k (revised higher from 1,653k SAAR). Single-family permits of 1,128k were down 8.5% y/y but up 2.0% m/m, while multi-family permits of 745k were up 41.9% y/y and up 21.9% m/m. Single-family permits represented 60.2% of total permits.
Building Material sales increased 12.5% y/y in December – According to the US Census Bureau, category advance retail sales were up 0.9% m/m to $41.7 billion in November. Relative to 2019 levels, sales are up 30.6%.
Canadian housing starts moved lower in December – According to the CMHC, Canadian seasonally adjusted housing starts were down 21.6% m/m in December to 236.1k units (SAAR), 2.8% higher than a year ago when housing starts were 229.7k (SAAR). The December figure was 12.6% below consensus estimates as starts were lower m/m in 6 of 10 provinces. In urban centers, single-family starts decreased 4.2% m/m, while multi-family starts decreased 29.0% m/m