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Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

Alternate Symbol(s):  ATHOF

Athabasca Oil Corporation (AOC) is a Canadian energy company with a focused strategy on the development of thermal and light oil assets. AOC’s segments include Thermal Oil and Duvernay Energy. The Thermal Oil segment consists of two operating oil sands SAGD projects and a large resource base of exploration areas in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. These projects provide Athabasca with a material low-decline production base that generates significant free cash flow for the business. The thermal assets use steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), which is an enhanced oil recovery technology for producing bitumen. The Duvernay Energy operating segment includes the Company's assets, liabilities, and operations located primarily in the Greater Kaybob area near the town of Fox Creek, Alberta. Its light oil assets are held in a private subsidiary (Duvernay Energy Corporation) in which it owns a 70% equity interest.


TSX:ATH - Post by User

Comment by Maxmoeon Jan 20, 2022 1:32pm
229 Views
Post# 34338286

RE:RE:Hedge Impact

RE:RE:Hedge ImpactAnyone see those warrants trading anywhere?
Kupotea wrote: Your math is wrong. The FCF sensitivity is $70 M per $5 WTI not $10 swing in WTI.

That means there's a 40% drag above 67.5 WTI due to 13,500 in swaps. For each $10 increase above 67.5 WTI you can expect roughly 84 M in additinal FCF for this year. 70/5*0.6= $8.4M in FCF swing per change in WTI above or below in 67.5 WTI.

This stock is crazy undervalued. Also it doesn't even matter because the stocks value is based on the long term FCF generation this year alone really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things.

My guess is that many of the new warrant holders are puchasing and selling on the open market. They came for the debt and the warrants are just a kicker so might as well sell.



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