RE:RE:Future cash flow and debtI bought in a bit later - and it is also a fairly small position for me because I have been trading other stocks. My average cost on this one was about 5.40.
I think we are in that magical spot where over the next year I don't think it matters much what you will buy - they will all go up as an industry somwhere between 30 to 100%.
this is only one of two that I am slowly accumulating for a multiyear long term hold though. It was not that long ago this company paid 3.50 per share in dividends - and frankly they are managing the company to be able to go back to that model.
Today prices are quite a bit higher than their best case scenario so we should hit our debt targets even faster than predicted. I suspect everyone is still a bit gun shy though and would really like to reduce debt to .5x to .75x cash flow. Especially after dealing with a price war, a pipeline bottleneck, stupidly high differentials and a pandemic - all in the past three years.
At one point there was also a 38 million dollar Export Development term loan - not sure if there are any restrictions on that or if it was paid out.
Both loans are so cheap though I bet they are happy to leave them alone for now.
If you are concerned about the entry price you could take a look at Yangarra. Slightly smaller, excellent reserve values and probably one of the cheapest out there. The company is pretty well run with no hidden ARO liabiliites and lots of flexibility with their bankers. They are also growing reasonably quickly. They do not have any BDC loans with their restrictions.
If oil goes over 100 bucks again for any duration, I do not see any reason that Bonterra could not be 30 dollars plus again.