Suncor Energy Inc T.SU

RE:RE:RE:nasty close

[w8asec]

The conundrum I see with SU dropping to $28.00 per share with a $70. / barrel oil is that it will still be making too much free cash flow and at that SP be paying a 6% dividend.

I hope your right.

Experienced wrote:

NPCexe wrote: All the short term issues globally like turkey pipeline explosion and Saudi attacks will be forgotten by next week... we need another oil catalyst otherwise WTI pricewill fall back to low 80s

Obscure1 wrote: Bids were getting hit across the board this afternoon the moment they appeared.

Tomorrow could be interesting.

 

Very true!!

I might add some other considerations.  A while back I commented that that over time, while oil prices fluctuate, they will gravitate towards the marginal cost of production.  That number for most OPEC producers (including their social costs) is in the 70s not the 80s and for shale producers it is a bit lower.  So once the price of oil gets above that number there is an incentive for additional production to come on stream and this results in a lowering of oil prices.

We have already seen reports of increased spending world-wide by oil producers and this will have a negative effect on oil prices and bring the price closer to the marginal production costs.

Based on all of this, I would not be surprised to see oil prices move back to the low to mid 70s over the next month or so.  If this happens, one could expect to see the SP of SU to fall to somewhere between 28 and 32 a share.