It alarms me It alarms me that everyone thinks they know the supply situation better than the reported news. If that was the case this would be surging. Yet it is not. It also alarms me that folks here think algorithms are knocking this down. It alarms me that folks here think it is consolidating and and and weak hands are getting shaken out. Consolidation? We have barely spent a week above $4.50 and back down she goes! That is BTE for you! The more probably scenario is oil cycling back to $70. It alarms me that folks think that it is amazing! In the short term $70 oil is a 20 percent haircut and probably a 25 percent drop in the stock price. It alarms me that people think a $3 share price with $70 oil is good!
It alarms that traders think a $50 stock trading off a dead cat bounce back to $4 think that's the deal of a lifetime! It alarms me when folks start counting their chickens befor they hatch. It alarms me when people start predicting $100 oil when the EIA forecasts $68. It alarms me when people feel oil is guaranteed to go to $100 when it has already surged from negative $40. It alarms me when folks think $200 is imminent when it has averaged high $60s the last two years. It alarms when traders ignore 20 million shares short. That's a big count. It alarms me when your whole basis for a price rebound is a supply crunch during a pandemic. Just remember two years ago there was a price war and it went the other way. Nothing to say that doesn't re-emerge. Biden wants low oil and the American public craves it. It alarms me when war in Russia is already baked in and that you think a further war premium is on the way.
It alarms me most that people are jumping the gun. Best case scenario is that debt gets to $1.2 billion this quarter. Not likely as they already stated it was at 1.4 billion in January. At least 6 months till
that happens so we are at an empasse. It alarms
me the the RSI points to this being overbought once again. It alarms me how crippling the hedges are. It alarms me that management hasn't released an operational update or updated 5 year plan. It alarms me that the 5 year plan released calls for $200 million a year in funds, that is about survival and not about regaining the glory days.
What alarms me most is the stock. It fails the eye test and trades like a wounded duck that can't get off the ground and take flight. Seriously, I thought at $90 oil it might reach $5. Now I am not so sure after all the carnage yesterday. This might be another falling knife syndrome. We already touched $4.16.
Are you really happy with the stock performance so far once this crossed $4? Is it reassuring for you? For those with much higher cost bases this has to be one of the most frustrating experiences holding a stock. Especially if you bet big on oil.