RE:RE:Zzzzzzz. Huh? Wha? Did I miss anything?I don't know if you are replying to me or someone I have on ignore. If it was me, let me clarify. I used the words "fun" and "demonstrate" in my original post because I was bored and shared a crazy idea to make a point. I'm not seriously suggesting 170,000 acres be dividended out to shareholders. Imagine the costs of surveying and legal, land transfer taxes, etc etc. I would point out the mass exodus of people back to the maritimes has created a once in my generation spike in real estate prices. Not woodlots which are still worth squat, but little plots some idiot from markham would pay $10,000 an acre for sight unseen. (I exaggerate to make my point). I'm talking building homes, not cutting logs. My point was also , as ridiculous as it sounded, it would 'only' amount to a fraction of the total landholdings of adn if done and highlights the fact the value of the landholdings is practically zero in the stock price. The stock price more closely reflects the cash flows/earnings/dividends of the harvesting and sale of logs. Again, fun with math, as a theoretical exercise, ADN could sell or dividend out, ALL their landholdings if they keep the logging rights, so there is no hodgepodge of weekend woodlot owners competing and driving log prices down. As for my zzzzzz and being muted via the ignore button, there is nobody reading this board anyway so what would it matter , and secondly, why would I care if every regular poster did put me on ignore? I'm just "spitballing" as I said before. I also share my ideas, crazy or not, with management , whether they care or not. One rich kid owns this company and I doubt very much he cares what anyone else thinks. Maybe his father. Not management, not his directors, and certainly not some schmucks with a few thousand shares.
dosperros wrote: That's a objectivity terrible idea re: a land dividend. The implicit value is now about 3x higher than valued as equity... but that gap will close. Generally we want to disburse the spare cash from over-delivering assets. On assets poised to rise in value you do the opposite -- move quickly to grow. Acquiring more land is on the table and leads a buyback for capital allocation as I glean from the last call.
Practically? Having thousands of fragmented peer owners doing their own planning and sales is a risk operationally and even competively. There are large economies of scale in this business, so the orphans will either not plan or go rudderless. They won't also have the scale to access carbon markets, and Acadian's fixed costs remain static but spread over a smaller estate.
Give it away -- given its mostly contiguous -- and watch some upstart rival poach most of it for $600/acre. No sense ushering that in.
So, no manic and heavily caffeinated cold-calling is needed (thankfully). This carbon monetization is moving forward at present. Its not new news either, I think it was stated in Q2-2021 results. So you guys don't read any company background I take it? Anyway, I have not looked, but my marginal land sequesters almost two tons of carbon per acre. Acadian's lbs would be better than that given its location. Still, ballpark assume 2.0 million tons of carbon in the entire Adn estate. That would be maybe 100,000 people-equivalent emissions each year. It's a bit messy as a ton of carbon stored is not equal to a ton of carbon sold as a credit, but assume it's half -- that means about a million tons each year. Use the current $20 per ton and it's already within 20% of annual EBITDA. But carbon is just getting started. Check out the ticket KRBN -- up 150% in just over a year. That follows the actual value passively.
So, what happens at higher carbon prices? It'll be interesting, and a hybrid model where serious carbon earnings combined with higher log sales margins owning to scarcity will be a good situation to say the least.
See BCGs report on forest value for the pricing particulars - ie $135/ton. And no more "zzzz" type stuff too please -- too much just means you lose most reads as the mute bottom gets hit. The due diligence on this name has nearly had the surface scratched, by myself included, so there's no shortage of ways to propose unlocking value. I have a few ideas to formalize and will reach out to IR and see how that goes.