Not surprising, but still disappointingFirstly, thanks to the people who posted revised numbers based on the latest update.
I'm finding it pretty difficult to find a silver lining in the NR. I'm not sure if the low production output and projections or the spiralling AISC are a bigger disappointment. How RP requires 28 million in sustaining costs is beyond me, isn't it supposed to be the low cost mine ? Far from ramping up to replace the lost Santander production they are compounding the issue. If Zn is in a multi-year bull market maybe this won't matter, but if 1.60 plus is a blip they have missed a golden opportunity to cash in.
I flat out don't believe their Caribou projections for next year. Going from 10 million lbs in Q4 to 60+ million in next year seems very improbable based on it's history of problems and their acknowledgement that problems will persist into Q1. The only thing that might make Caribou work out is a skyrocketing silver price and/or some type of ROL Hail Mary. The fact that they are spending money to minimized their mine closure costs, while prudent, is hardly encouraging for its long term future.
The only thing thing going right for TV is the Zn price. What price they need to be successful in the long run is anyone's guess, but I think based on this report I think it is north of 1.40/lb. Their stated goal of being a low cost producer profitable at a Zn price of 1.20/lb seems to be a pipe dream at this point.