I think I get it...Fire respectfully, each time we collectively discuss TV's next quarter..we make assumptions based on what we already know. But it is continually what we don't know that seems (to spoil the broth as it were).
I have Two major issues moving forward with TV.
1. I expect the Zinc price to stay quite strong for the next 2 quarters.1/2 Part of the price of zinc fundamental is actual supply and demand. On this there are projected deficits...so good for zinc price.
The other 1/2 is speculation....right now Chinese smelters have been slowed by high energy prices and also government mandates to clean the air quality up for the Beijing Olyimpics.
European smelters also have shut down or went on care and maintainance due to sky high energy prices.
Both these events will pass and most importantly as soon as the speculative narraitive changes..concerning these 2 variables.....we will see a zinc price dip....how low is anyones guess........I do not expect it to be below 1.40.....But it will dip. Zinc will not remain sky high continiously for 8 quarters. And to talk about how high zinc price will be in 2023...well you might as well be throwing darts at a blackboard from 200 feet blind with trying to juggle 3 lemons.
2. Treval historically either hits the low end of their production targets or misses. The fact that they estimated 2022 Production at the level where they have ......is bad enough.....the fact that they rarely ever meet their targets makes the possibilities pretty ugly.
I am hoping like everyone else for ROL at Caribou to become something, for Zinc to stay high forever and for TC,S to stay low forever......but I am not a child and i am long past believeing in fairy tales.
Trevali will do okay.......they will get RP2.0 done.....but to believe at this point that they will accomplish this without loans is unrealistic....we can only hope the loan conditions are not to damaging..to TV'S future.
To make a lot of money when Zinc price is high you actually have to have a lot of zinc to sell.
The report states they will not.
I will continue to hold my position because frankly I have been holding for years.....but anyone expecting like me that this could become a Cinderella story in 3-4 quarters......well.........Cinderella had to use the toilet before going to the ball.....she just got some shitt on her dress, messed up her makeup and lost a shoe and she may well have to find a f-ing dance partner before someone turns up the lighting and eveyone gets a good look.
I am praying (and I not religious) that I am wrong and time will tell.
At these prices TV is a low risk ........anyone buying at 2.00 or below will not lose....of this I am very confident.........but for Bag holders will a average cost for 5.00 -6.00 dollars and above
we just got a lot more time tacked on our jail sentence.
My HUMBLE OPINION