RE:Financial Results - February 24thI still believe the generalist has NO idea how much money is being made at these prices.
We who do the reading all understand..... but
they look at Q3 for Quarterly and still look at the 2020 Annual....I don't think people grasp the impact of these prices
Q4/YE reports and Q1 guidance will wake people up and continue the rerate.
Can't wait Feb 24th for Baytex.
BayStreetWolfTO wrote: I had an interesting discussion with someone who asked with the recent swing from $70 to $80+ oil why the prices are not higher as he expected ALL Canadian O&G companies to be trading higher than they are today.
While it is an interesting question my opinion is the following....
We are waiting for financial statement confirmations of impact.
Take Baytex for instance...while we all assume the massive FCF is dropping the debt as of right now there is NO filed reported to confirm this. Sure we make the assumptions and listen to the management team and their plan but really we need a "filed financial document" to show the progress.
The price of WTI does not provide this corporate progress confirmation
So....when someone says look how the stocks are trading based on $75, $80, $85 oil....remember this....
As far as the market is concerned the Baytex debt right now is $1.564 as filed for September 30, 2021
Until we see NEW metrics the market can NOT properly value all fo these companies...
So we wait...I personally collect my other divy's and buy some more...but we really do need "filed financial documents" to prove out our analysis
For now using WTI is in a way an assumption (although a very strong guide in my opinion)
Just my perspective as sooner or later someone will say "oh $87 oil and $4.50+" most intelligent people know this logic is nonsense....