Almonty Industries Inc T.AII

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Good luck longs

[lonade]

QuarterDollar wrote:

• Still looking for the LB video, but for now I will assume that I am mistaken and retract my earlier statement of 20x.

• But in my defence......
• IIF Webnar (9:40):   initial startup is 45% of maximum output (330,000 MTU) - Plansee to buy 45% of our output

• According to Investor Presentation (Page 26): Annual profits are $50M US
• Loan Interest Rate:  3M-Libor + 2.3% = 2.57% 

• If 45% capacity is $50M US Profit, then max capacity (650,000 MTU) is $111M US, which is $0.53 US/share profit (or potential dividend).

• Assume the risk rate is the rate of inflation and not the Loan Interest Rate, say 5%, makes the share price $10.63 US ($13.29 CAN) (If it was the rate of the loan, then $20.69 US or $25.86 CAN).
• This share price doesn't factor in Inflation and Moly, as both will push up the share price further.

 

 

Inflation

• govts love inflation as it devalues their debt, plus total sales tax increase due to the cost of everything going up.
• In my opinion, govts will allow a moderate amount of inflation so that their people will complain about suppliers charging to much.  If govts combat inflation by raising interest rates too high, then people will focus the blame on the government.
• So we are going to see a balance of both interest rate increases and inflation going forward.
• Inflation will push up the price of APT. Generally speaking, high prices would bring new entrants into the market, but Inflation is a double edge sword as the price of APT will increase and so will all costs, hence the net gain may still be a barrier for new entrants. But it is the opposite for us.....most of our mine purchases were done before the inflationary period, plus most of the mining process will be automated hence many fixed costs should be set to prices before inflationary period.

• Barriers to entry, inflationary period, higher global demand for tungsten, plus we have a major competitive advantages, I don't see APT prices going below $300 for a long time. I wouldn't be surprised if we see $400 before 2030.....which means MORE PROFIT.

good analysis! fully agree that this mine will be creating a tremendous amount of cash...but first let's see where we are standing Q4 22 / Q1 23...those two quarters will be very revealing for the company.