RE:RE:RE:CRH Growth Enginesmonty613 wrote: bandit69 wrote:
My point is that I wouldn't count on a patent to sail a ship. At all. Ever. Maybe the product will survive the patent but, there will inevitably be competition if there isn't already.
I was also good friends with a doctor that had his own practice/clinic for over 40 years. He has passed away but was a very well known and respected doctor. He was clear there was little money in a clinic.
As I said before, only time will tell but I can see this floating downwards. 2.50 - $3 will not surprise me at all at some point especially in light of the patent information.
sorry to hear about your doctor friend but the good thing is that WELL's business is largely specialized medical services (MyHealth) and a GI anesthesia vendor business. both have very different margins from primary care. CRH especially as they are simply a vendor of anesthesia and don't have the same overhead as a medical clinic.
only time will tell but I don't see it at $2.50-$3 equity value per share based on what they have paid for the assets, the growing virtual services side of the biz, and the fact that companies like CRH/MyHealth are stable defensive healthcare. let's forget the Interest and Taxes piece of EBITDA - I am still struggling how you cannot agree with the notion of one-time expenses or non-cash Depreciation/Amortization expenses ($16MM expense last quarter). both are meaningful when looking at the true profitability of WELL.
All good, monty but thanks. He was a very interesting guy. Funny thing, he was also incredibly rational and reasonable on many things. He even said to me that doctors (and lawyers) were notoriously poor investors. Made me laugh.
Don't get me wrong, I don't hope WELL crashes or goes up, it is irrelevant to me. What I watch is how it performs compard to my own view of it. It's how I continue to learn and, hopefully, improve. I have seen this play before more than once. CPG was a prime example, same business model to acquire. Every buy side analyst was pumping the story for years and, of course, every single "asset" they acquired was the best asset out there. (sound familiar?) They were highy indebted and were financing at lower and lower prices long before the oil crash appeared. I even predicted the CEO at the time would ride off in to the sunset when reality surfaced. It did, and he did. People on that board jumped all over me all the time for saying the company was too leveraged and the float too large and growing yadda yadda yadda. They would buy an asset then spin a story to "look over here" so nobody would bother with the reality. It ended up a disaster and they had to sell these "primo" assets, that they paid primo dollars for, in a depressed market (when everyone else was also trying to sell assets) to lighten the debt load. I called it a smoke and mirror show. It took time but I was right in the end. I call companies that dilute and leverage salary suckers. The ones collecting salaries under these conditions (a company without profits), courtesy of investors, are the only ones who win. And the longer the story can be told and loved the more salary a person makes over time. Typically an elevated salary.
I am watching another equity that I did own shares in last year, tremendous tech, I mean huge like nothing I have seen before but, just a story. A story that is already getting old. At least WELL has revenues. The one I am speaking about, sales are less than stellar and barely exist but they are claiming they had tremendous growth last year. I am still laughing and so is the share price. To me, any company that cherishes financings as success, is not a real success in my view. Revenues with profits/ earnings and retained earnings is success in my view. Increasing share counts from financings without good use of those dollars to increase shareholder value, are a failure in my view. Yet, it is claimed as growth and success apparently.
I am not trying to convince you I am right but I do appreciate good discussion. We will not agree on EBITDA and that's totally fine. We can agree to disagree but still discuss. And who knows, maybe we learn from each other in the process. I haven't had such good discussions on these boards or in person for a long time so I do appreciate them. thanks.