Wino115 wrote: Of course, anything can happen, but from what I see, Paul seems to be a youngish CEO who wants a legacy and to build something as good and as large as many of his Pfizer alum's have done in the biotech world. There's also clearly a view of building something in his hometown as well, where we all know pride is an important factor. This doesn't mean it won't happen, but that I do not think he's out there soliciting and looking. I see no indication of that and that makes total sense given where they are.
I think I posted this before, but there's not many scenarios where a $10-12 price makes any sense. I can be totally wrong on this, but there's some logic. The reason being we're at a sort of binary outcome here that triggers a lot of other strategic aspects they've been clear about. Hear me out - but to sell at a $10-12 level would mean the share is sitting around the $6-8 level. The problem with that is that this level will likely only be hit and stuck on if 1a is ok and 1b is on going. The $5-7 level to me would be reached just by having solid 1b data and a touch around the POC. At that point, we've eliminated that Katana was a total bust and it actually now has only a positive probability attached to it, with a payoff that incorporates much higher valuation probabilities in the distribution of "estimated" values any of us can model out.
But once you finish up 1b, you'll have a far stronger sense of what indications are realistic to go for (remember, a phase 2 could run parallel 3-4 indications if they want to). We'll also know how it stacks up commercially against the competition in the "last line of defense". We'll have response rates, partial/complete recovery data, duration, survival, etc... At that point, you can start attaching revenue assumptions and estimation around Phase 2 completions and PHase 3 confirmatory trials. Every single one of those milestones takes you much, much higher. As we've seen -- the Phase 1 to Phase 2 sees a 5x move, and the PHase 2 to 3 a 4x move on average in oncology ADC type names.
In other words, we will only be hanging around the $5-7 level for, at most, 6 months and that's coming up shortly in my estimation (BIG IF, we see POC hints). At this point, no one is interested in THTX, the science is still unproven, and big pharma will be more than happy to wait and see something more definitive around an unknow target, unknown peptide, unknown true efficacy and same for it's NASH drug. In other words, if there's any takeover, it would be further down the road; hence, at much higher levels.
My own view is for Paul to keep building something of value and prove up Canada can be an innovative pharma landscape. THere's so much they can do around SORT1, peptide knowledge, tesamorelin. Go quietly build a $20bil company (if you can do that quietly).
muslix1 wrote:
I did not see that THTX wanted to sell on any documents...
FAKE NEWS like my friend Don says...lol