Con-Jest-UreNew noun made up by CGX investors to describe current situation as an opinion or conclusion formed on the basis of being humorous about a sad situation which has been contaminated with misinformation and impatience.. The word is CONJECTURE. Ok takeaways... With the rig having to probably change out drill tip that's a few days lost..SPS a few more ..new Top Drive and realignment a few more ..so probably lost a Fortnight .. Root cause analysis Why: The much vaunted exploration team of ex-perts Underestimated the toughness of the Santonian Unconformity at that particular location which is in a slight drape with different sediments grading compared to Maka Central and the Stabroek Block floor..so the drill tip probably wore out and they changed it then not getting the depth per day they want they changed the Top Drive and realigned..the SPS was coincidental so RigMax dealt with it.. What we have learnt is that the Santonian unconformity is a hell of a seal ..and it is more or less continuous going south to the termination point before the Guyana shore ..this would explain why hardly anything like oil onshore Guyana. With the level of compaction and hardness in that conglomerate it is fair conclusion that the pressure is at the high end and over millennia would have been adequate to push the Source Rock to maturity ..therefore we can now safely move from CONJECTURE on two aspects ..(1)sealing and (2) source rock maturity in that area where Kawa is sitting if you drill down vertically ...what it means is that it is not dependent on lateral migration to have an accumulation it just rises up and accumulates under the Drill Bit Top Drive Killing Santonian unconformity so with the lower water depth above creating less downward pressure the lobate accumulation that makes up the Santonian targets in H23 and H25 should be primed with 37-40 API oil in those bright spots shown on the seismic interpretation...the hydrocarbon system noted in the Campanian which is above the Santonian would be mutually exclusive of the H23 and H25 and would be a higher API oil from early oil migration from further out in the Stabroek Block ..so please Gain-tul-men be aware that this is not the Liza type plays in floor fans this is a proximal fan this is more the bajada type not the playa type (not u GTboy)..but what me model is showing is a subtle difference also between Kawa and Maka Central with the drill team catering for overpressure etc a la Maka Central but not being prepared for the difference in grading and hardness in Kawa's section of the Santonian unconformity...so what I'm getting in a nutshell is the Campanian H19 oil will be higher API but probably not much of an accumulation,Kawa H23 and H25 are spatially isolated from Maka Central but can now be safely de-risked in terms of proximity to a mature source rock..by inferring the pressure causing the excessive compaction in the Santonian unconformity was more than adequate to push the local portion of the source rock into thermal maturity (started to foam in the heat..thanks Meatloaf)...so now with the rig SPS'ed and the unconformity drilled through and all the above being said we are moving away from CONJECTURE into a realm of knowledge .. knowledge alone is not power..the ability to turn that knowledge into money is power ..but with power comes (insect sense kicking in) great responsibility...yeah and to the one guy who will say spider is an arachnid ..yeah I know lol ...