RE:Baytex Price Hysteria - It is entertaining Research seeker.....good analysis. You will find some here can offer an intelligent analysis...however yes there are many this price before that clowns or stuck in the mud or flying high loonies..
Re: "The fundamentals are on hold at the moment. Most of the stats printed on any website have Q3-2021 or FY-2020 as their basis."
I have said this now repeatedly...the bashers and pumpers ignore it but those are the facts current stats are based on 4 month old data (that is a fact) and those figures are NOT based on 75, 80, 85 or the current 88$ oil...Q3 was only a $70 average ...way below where we are today.
Re: "This is why Q4/YE is the most agonizing time of the year for those have a stake in a company on the rebound."
Agreed the wait for Q4/YE for some seems to take so long lol
Re:
Look at weekly charts......I will admit I'm not a charts guy
Ignore the hype....yep ignore hype and bashers
Do useful research....this I preach everyday go to the data
Trade around a core position, and embrace the momentum swings.....long-term so don't really stress the day to day but enjoy watching....some others though maybe battling to retire lol
Thank those who provide good information....always thanks for good analysis...so thank you for your contributions...
Re: Long term, it does look really good here......I agree I have a review date of June 30 2023...not a price target. I want to see how the oil thesis runs, how management implements the plan etc....the rest is noise.
Thanks again for sharing.
PS for me what matters is how much cash hits the bank daily....as it is that long term that changes the equity #
ResearchSeeker wrote:
---> Here is what I can point out.
The fundamentals are on hold at the moment. Most of the stats printed on any website have Q3-2021 or FY-2020 as their basis. This is why Q4/YE is the most agonizing time of the year for those have a stake in a company on the rebound.
---> Case in point
A charting site I use has a P/E ratio of 2.03 for Baytex today. Historical nominal P/E ratio for the SP500 is 15. Based on that number of 15, and Baytex Canada closing price of 4.58, Baytex adjusted to P/E 15 would be:
(4.58 x 15) / 2.03 = 33.84
This seems reasonable, though there is no possible chance this is right for many reasons. I'll point out two.
1. This P/E ratio is likely based on Q3 2021, (Most likely) or FY 2020!
2. They will not tell you how they calculated that number, so it could be anything, and should not be used to estimate a price. If accuracy is what you want, then go to the company filed reports!
---> Technicals
If you are looking at a daily chart, as I did for the first time in a long time today, my first impression was that it had dyslexia! Now I remember why I don't look at those.
The weekly chart is much more pleasing to the eye.
I plug in keltners and simple moving averages to cover six month, one year, and two year. Back in the second week of March, and the third week of April, Baytex tracked the two year moving average like a dog after steak! The next week saw the six month SMA cross over the 2 Year SMA, and Baytex has been in an upward trend ever since. THIS COULD NOT LOOK ANY BETTER!
The last four weeks Baytex has traced the upper keltner channel for a six month average. The two year trend is in overbought territory, and the five year is getting close to overbought. Just because this is the case, does not mean it will not stay that way. These stats must read like this, or it will not go higher. Momentum seems to be flat if not slightly downward - Of course it does, because we are waiting for numbers to come out, and this is still four more weeks away!
---> Regarding a potential squeeze
Remember that post I made about putting yourself in the shoes of those who look at merging, acquiring, or being acquired? This is what needs to happen for a squeeze to take place. It will most likely take news of Baytex being acquired at a large premium, or there will be no squeeze. At any given moment, the CFO knows what his company is worth, how much they would accept in a buyout, (or higher than that number) and what the maximum price they would pay for companies, they might be looking at acquiring. (They would be happy to pay less that that).
This is the kind of work/research that pays off. I think of it like it was, in that meeting in the Thomas Crown Affair, when the guy is about to light a cigar! He thought he was getting a great deal, until Mr. Crown informed him otherwise! Gordon Gecko's speech about Teldar Paper was really a great example of what matters in research, because that is a bigger problem today, than it was then. I feel we are lucky to have a board like we do with Baytex.
Also, per share statistics are only a derivative. I believe it is better to get your numbers in total first, and adjust them per share afterward. I feel it paints a better picture as to whether the number is reasonable, or in outer space.
---> Checklist
Look at weekly charts
Ignore the hype
Do useful research
Trade around a core position, and embrace the momentum swings.
Thank those who provide good information.
Long term, it does look really good here.
The RS