RE:RE:RE:Scotia calls for a FCF Beat in Q4 - Graphs and detailGood day Gents, appreciate the info and comments. So for chits and giggles here is a sister company comparison for another speculative view on SDE price potential, the numbers are eerily very similar.
Paramount vs Spartan (including velvet) (Other similars include PIPE, NVA and PEY)
Important Comparable Hilites:
Current share price POU = 24.91 SDE = 7.92
Q3/21 Comparison
Shares outstanding POU = 133K SDE = 175k
Net Debt (Debt + Net W/C) POU = 579M SDE = 493M
EBITDA ex. hedging (Q2/21) POU = 149,962 SDE = 131,750
Production (Q2/21) POU = 79,995 SDE = 70,000
Production Split Gas/Liquids POU = 57/43 SDE = 59/41
Reserves (2020) POU = 632,025 SDE = 525,600
PV10 (2020) POU = 3,649,000 SDE = 3,548,000
Metrics
Monetary Debt/EBITDA POU = 0.97 SDE = 1.02
** Monetary EV per flowing BOE POE = 41,684 SDE = 24,926
*Monetary EV/EBITDA POU = 5.6 SDE = 3.3
*Monetary EV per BOE reserve POU = 5.276 SDE = 3.320
Speculative comments IMO:
The market still has not fully figured out how to evaluate SDE, a clearer pic should be realized with Q4/year end financials including velvet #'s. Establishing a reasonable div. may also help accelerate share value.
I cannot speak to POU remaining hedges while SDE sees 0 oil hedges by Mar 2022 and currently 30% NG hedges reduced to 10% by August 2022 to end early 2023.
Conclusion IMO:
Since SDE continues to track OIL it appears share value will continue to rise as long as OIL remains at these levels or continues to rise.
Still seriously undervalued by financial comparables against it's peers, as example against POU, the speculative share value of SDE is currently more like 17.50 area IMO.
Keep an eye to EV per flowing boe going forward by qtr.
Technicals IMO:
Completion of long term inverted triangle wave pattern positive indicator for me for next wave of share appreciation.
Resistance areas, top end of current rising channel resistance around the 8.25 area a push thru that on Q4 sees nothing in the way to the 11.00 area and a continuation from 2013/2014 of reorganization and pre asset acquisitons etc.
Looking at continued "winner winner wagu chicken dinner" lol, as long as commodity fundy's remain strong, cheers.