RE:The phase 1a trial has already been de-riskedAs you know, I am a firm believer that the quality of results will modulate the stock price. That being said, we need to stay realistic. Unless they would have really spectacular results on some patients, like complete responses, which is very unlikely, the SP will not go crazy even with clear efficacy and a proof of concept. Look at Sutro, they already have this early efficacy results and their market cap is not very high. That being said, I think that if they have the proof of concept out of phase Ia, by that I mean clear efficacy on some patients, the SP should go up significantly, maybe double. That being said, even with a proof of concept in the bag, they will need to run the phase Ib in a more efficient manner. I hope they will be ready to go with phase Ib a few weeks after they have the MTD and that enrollment will be swift.
SPCEO1 wrote: Not totally, of course, but meaningfully. The confidence of the management team at the shareholder meetings last week and the hiring efforts both give strong indications that when we finally do hear what the company has seen in the phase 1a, we will likely be pleased. The addition of Dr. Rothenberg continues to be one of the most important "tells" of them all.
Now, we simply have to wait to hear the details and we do not know exactly how long of a wait we are facing. But assuming the news is good on the phase 1a as we expect, the next question will be whether any other investor are actually paying attention to anything TH is doing other than those of us on this board. My confidence falls sharply on that issue. I cannot make much of a case for TH's stock to get a great reception from investors generally if they report really compelling phase 1a data. Hopefully, I am wrong about that but, while there is evidence that good things are happening in the phase 1a trial, I have not seen any evidence yet that Wall Street is engaged with TH. Besides ourselves, there does not seem to be a large number of investors anxiously anticipating the results and TH does not seem to be doing anything to change that.
So, the phase 1a has already been de-risked but the risk that any good or reat results coming from that trial get mostly ignored remains way, way too high.