RE:RE:2022 Free cash flow First let's differentiation between Cash Flow and AFFO.
Cash flow for Q3 and Q4 '21 look to be ~ $75M per Quarter with changes in working capital swinging AFFO higher then lower in the quarters. AFFO looks to be about $45M for Q4 vs $72M for Q3. FCF looks like ~ $34m for Q4, which aligns with 32M debt reduction, so spending of ~ $31M in the quarter, of which $17M is recorded as CAPEX. The other $14M is either debt finance costs paid in the quarter (non re-occuring), or capitalization of "maintainence spend" that is not classified as CAPEX in their accounting.
Cash flow from Operations is the more stable number, and it looks like they are forecasting $300M for 2022, which is essentially the last two quarters average x 4 for '22. That seems conservative, but I doubt they are interested in over-promising and underdelivering, so they are likely sandbagging here.
With the same price deck, they are forecasting ~ $360M in FCF per year for '23 and '24, so its fair to call $180M (the difference between '22 and '23) roughly the cost of the '22 hedges + debt financing costs and site improvements they are expensing in '22 vs calling capital expense.