RE:RE:RE:RE:A few things to consider...There's lots of numbers we can conjure up. In the release they purposely mentioned FREE cash flow of 900 million. That's $1.70 per share. That can be used to self finance a big part of a bid. Now, since they will still have multi decades of reserves, I could add your asset and tax value of 3.20. Let's call it 3.30 for shiggles and BAM, there is the magical mas number of $5. So long as mgmt and the board don't screw us shareholders in exchange for their own big golden parachutes, there will inevitably be more than 1 bidder. Unless they agree to ridiculous break fees, a rofr, and any other nasty tricks. Or unless the first bid is a knock out blockbuster bid. It's a long way from 11 cents and kissing bankers @ss while groveling to govnt.
ManitobaCanuck wrote: Mas my friend, agree with your math.
But isnt the share count 550mill.
Secondly tax losses are about 1.2$ a stock.
I would value this at around 30k per flowing barrel( similar to what CNRL paid for Storm)
Thats about 2$ a stock plus 1.2$ tax losses=3.2$ . Even if we discount 20% ,we may get 2.5$ a stock...Will be happy with that offer too
masfortuna wrote: Manitoba if my math is correct a company buying ath would not pay any taxes on that first 3.2 billion in revs. Assuming a 30% saving (???) that's about 1 billion in savings and would account for a $2.15 sp alone. Pay and additional $2.85 per share (for a total of 1.7 billion) and that gives me $5 dollars. So a company making revenues in excess of 3.2 billion that are going to get taxed, could pay $5 per share and acquire Ath for 1.7 billion. Not sure if I would call that 1.7 billion excessive if oil crosses that $100 and ath is then trading at $2.50.
Wishful thinking a little I know BUT it's always nice to dream a little.