Predicting closing prices on Option Expiration DaysMigraine
Thanks for your input into the world of option trading. It has certainly opened up a new perspective on the ongoing tug-of-war of stock movements for me.
Your posts about the SU option information for February indicate to me that there is a good chance that SU will close on Friday Feb 18th at or very close to US$28.00. Am I reading this correctly?
Given the significant imbalance in the outstanding "in the money" call/put options for March, what would be your best guess for the US$ share price of SU on March 18?
I know it is too early to have confidence in picking a number, but when you study the option chain for March, I assume that a sophisticated option trader can get a feel for what is possible in terms of guiding the price towards a "doable" as opposed to a "maximum pain" strike price (in the absence of uncontrollable external events) that will minimize the pain for the option writers without calling in too many favours or waking the wolves.