GREY:XEBEQ - Post by User
Post by
tamaracktopon Feb 08, 2022 8:02am
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Post# 34407761
Strategizing
StrategizingHere's how I'd play this, if I was inclined to try to "time the market"
This stock has made virtually insignificant higher lows for two weeks now,
and is still trading below book value.
We are now 5 weeks from earnings.
The chances of an earth-shattering development that knocks the stock lower prior to
earnings are so low as to be virtually nil.
Gan wrote:
"Patience is needed and if I had to venture a guess we will bounce around here until Q4 is released"
I disagree completely. The market will know beforehand if the results are likely
to be good, and if so, the stock will rally accordingly prior to earnings.
If I owned Xebec at much higher prices, and if I had real money I could spare for a few weeks, I'd buy stock here and average down my ACB.
If the stock does indeed rally substantially before the news, I would keep the new shares because there is a downside "cushion."
If the stock doesn't rally, I'd sell the new shares at a capital loss (using your new lower ACB) , and I'd have that loss to carry forward indefinitely as well as having a new lower
ACB on my remaining shares.
Hypothetically, if you sell your newly acquired shares ten of twenty cents above their cost, the excercise won't have cost you a penny, but youll still have a capital loss to carry forward and you've reduced your ACB on your remaining shares as well as having positioned yourself for a greater and faster gain if the numbers are good.
If you believe the downside at today's price is very limited, the risk/reward in this approach is compelling.
You have $20,000 in your chequing account, you take it out and buy 10,000 Xebec.
If it doesn't work, you sell the Xebec and put the $20 grand back in your chequing account.
If it does work, you have 10m more shares of Xebec at a sharply lower ACB for your all of your shares.