FormerXBC Inc XEBEQ

RE:RE:Strategizing

[Kronyboy]

You asked an honest question and I will give you an honest answer.

If this spec stock, which is less than 15% of my overall portfolio, which is largely-if-not-mostly comprised of Canadian Blue Chips (such as TD, whoowie, what gains I've experienced this year) goes down to $1, I will most likely make a chunk purchase of about 8-10K shares. This will lower my average from $3.21 at 30,700 shares to roughly about ~$2.50 on 40k shares. 

Considering the ongoing health of the company, the increasing top lines, the fact that it's on the cusp of profitability (with nye but a couple quarters to confirm this potential fact), your doomsday scenario is nothing but an opportunity.

Do you understand that at $1, XBC's market cap becomes 150m? Please explicate one better buying opportunity for small-cap/micro-cap/spec stocks, that rationally takes into account a better P/S (which will be much lower than the currently outrageous 2.29...) and now the price:book will be 0.50...

Come on, Whognu, who are you trying to kid here, exactly? The only way your argument holds ANY water is if it stands on two rather silly laurels: (1) you don't have the 2-5 years to wait for this to do what it's supposed to do; (2) you're convinced this stock is doomed. 

It's not doomed. Every single one of your hyper-conservative posts demonstrate that. Your purchases at $3.50 demonstrated that further. If it was a buy for you then, it's certainly a buy now - except it's not if technicals are your only friend and trend. We see you my good sir, I'd appreciate if you don't navigate into babe territorty :\ 

whognu1 wrote: i can't not reply to this TT nonsense*

*proviso - unless you own zero XBC shares, and i doubt that guy is here................


the one thing i do agree with is there have been a series of higher lows, which as i and others have stated, is very good and COULD be indicative of the bottom being in

without time, this is a guess at best



many people here appear to already  have far more than a NORMAL and Acceptable portfolio position in a (any) microcap stock, XBC in particular


meaning, YOU ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH


so, double titaniun says go all in, can't get any worse, and you can trade your way out of the hole you are in

reducing your ACB by taking a greater loss is folly


so, one of 2 things will happen

1) results are 'good' and indeed, the stock closes up a buck, and you will all be handsomely rewarded (congratulations for hanging in)

2) results are 'less than good' and the stock sees $1.20 (or some such number)

beleive it or don't, but this report is THE one that will make of break many here


TT, you have been 100% wrong going on almost year 

you have cajolled, and ridiculed people to buy and hang on and buy some more all the way from $10

any real broker would have long ago counselled clients to reduce exposure, and simply stood pat from $5 -$6 when the chart had alreay completely broken down


anyone out there wanting to buy more, simply ask yourselves what will you do if it hits $1

don't be a hero, don't catch a falling knife and when you're in a hole; stop digging


good luck



 

tamaracktop wrote: Here's how I'd play this, if I was inclined to try to "time the market"

This stock has made virtually insignificant higher lows for two weeks now, 
and is still trading below book value.

We are now 5 weeks from earnings.

The chances of an earth-shattering development that knocks the stock lower prior to
earnings are so low as to be virtually nil.

Gan wrote: 

  "Patience is needed and if I had to venture a guess we will bounce around here until         Q4 is released"

I disagree completely. The market will know beforehand if the results are likely 
to be good, and if so, the stock will rally accordingly prior to earnings.

If I owned Xebec at much higher prices, and if I had real money I could spare for a few weeks, I'd buy stock here and average down my ACB.

If the stock does indeed rally substantially before the news, I would keep the new shares because there is a downside "cushion."

If the stock doesn't rally, I'd sell the new shares at a capital loss (using your new lower ACB) , and I'd have that loss to carry forward indefinitely as well as having a new lower
ACB on my remaining shares.

Hypothetically, if you sell your newly acquired shares ten of twenty cents above their cost, the excercise won't have cost you a penny, but youll still have a capital loss to carry forward and you've reduced your ACB on your remaining shares as well as having positioned yourself for a greater and faster gain if the numbers are good.

If you believe the downside at today's price is very limited, the risk/reward in this approach is compelling.

You have $20,000 in your chequing account, you take it out and buy 10,000 Xebec.
If it doesn't work, you sell the Xebec and put the $20 grand back in your chequing account.

If it does work, you have 10m more shares of Xebec at a sharply lower ACB for your all of your shares.