My price target
I don't usually respond well to people shouting at me, but it's a good question: what's it worth?
I am no stock analyst, but I like to compare what I consider similar companies. In this case, a single asset miner expected to produce 287,000 annual oz. for the first 5 years. I note that the updated feasibility study calculated a NPV of Cdn.$1.1 Billion, discounted at 5%. That works out to $1.95 per diluted share, not counting the particulars of the financing package.
My target is $2 per share, two years from today. That would be about a year before first production. Note that this is assuming no great change in the gold price. If gold has entered a new bear market by February 2024, all bets are off.
I would compare this to K92 and Skeena Resources. At $7, KNT is valued at Cdn$1.62 Billion or US$1.25B. In 2025 they should be producing 320,000 annual ounces, debt free. The stock is very expensive on this year's 140,000 ounces but along with the elevated political risk, the geography also gives you a shot at zillions: think Grasberg, Lihir, Ok Tedi, etc. Over the next 2 years, I think Sabina is worth less than K92.
Similar to SBB, Skeena is in the financing stage (almost). They will have ballpark 5 million ounces at a little under 5 g/t open pit. They will produce about 350,000 annual ounces probably in the same 2025 timeframe. Today, at $13, the market cap is about $962 million using 74 milllion shares outstanding. Note that Skeena will have a cash infusion in Oct. when 2.8 million warrants come due at $10.80 exercise price. Not sure how much more equity willl be required - let's say another 6 million shares bringing the total to 80million. If I'm ballpark correct, that would mean SKE would have a mkt cap of $1,040,000,000 or within spitting distance of Sabina's advertized NPV. Personal opinion only, I prefer Skeena over Sabina for the 2 year timeframe. Reason: Skeena is non-Arctic. You may feel differently, I suffer TMAC prejudice.