RE:RE:RE:The bones are telling me an 8.00 US offer is coming soon .Repost from January 11/2022
99942Apophis
New cases of Bladder Cancer in Canada & US for 2021
The American Cancer Society’s estimates for bladder cancer in the United States for 2021 are:
- About 83,730 new cases of bladder cancer (about 64,280 in men and 19,450 in women)
Incidence and mortality
It is estimated that in 2021: 12,500 Canadians will be diagnosed with bladder cancer. 2,600 Canadians will die from bladder cancer. 9,500 men will be diagnosed with bladder cancer and 1,900 will die from it.
Total for both countries 96,230
Ok we have a total of 96K how many do we get after BTD & FDA approval? As I guesstimated in the past I will use 10% for first full year of commercialization giving us a total of 9,600.
Take that 9,600 X $100,000 (2 treatments) = 960 million gross revenue. We now have to consider cost for that revenue which includes wages of workers @ Theralase, research and other overhead expenditures. All costs are also theoretical so using another guesstimate of 400 million still leaves 560 million net profit divided by estimated shares at a future date of commercialization might be 250 million = $2.24
I keep stressing the price of shares to earnings ratio (PE Ratio) which has an average of 20 for mature stocks, however for this it will be considered a growth stock because of future cancer indications that will also be conquered so I like to use a 50 multiple so 50 X $2.24 = $112.00 per share down the road in their first full year of revenue.
My numbers have varied from past guesstimate but all point to a share price between $50 to $112
I know many feel my numbers are too high however in my opinion these numbers reflect a reasonably close possibility to where the share price will be for a 10% of bladder cases added to Theralase's revenue.
All criticisms accepted.