RE:RE:Canadian Banks Downgraded to SellFor personal tax reasons, I would also favour no dividend now, and every extra dollar be used for debt repayment and share buybacks.
In regards to the actions of the Fed, one can liken it to driving a car. Quantitative easing has been the foot on the gas to the rear axle, and interest rates have been the front wheel brakes. To survive the pandemic economic crash and get us out of the mudhole, they totally released the brakes taking interest rates to zero, and pressed the accellerator through the floorboards and kicked in the turbo with money printing, and massive injections of cash into the system to provide liquidity and stimulus. Tires were smokin'!
As the pandemic eased with Omicron becoming the dominant and mild form, and the economy picked up as restrictions eased, it was time for the Fed to start to take the foot off the accellerator pedal and ease off the QE. However we burned a lot of fuel to get us out of the hole, saddled with massive new debt, and excess liquidity, and voila, inflation.
As per Powell's speeches, the message he conveyed was that in order to keep the car from losing control and skidding into the ditch, the Fed will gradually ease off the gas (QE tapering), and slowly apply the brakes (rate hikes). There will be no sudden moves, but easy controlled and announced adjustments and planned actions, which will be conveyed to all well in advance to prevent any surprises and market disruptions. The entire family of back seat drivers are shouting their thoughts to say what they think they should do next.
Looking at the economy and markets now, the Fed policy undertaken has helped rescue us from a terrible fate, but we cannot ignore the implications of a 30 Trillion US total debt that has now rocketed to around $100,000 per capita, and an inflation rate that is feared it may get out of hand.
How much is 30 TRILLION Dollars?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/americas-30-trillion-debt-one-stunning-visualization One of the main causes of inflation is the price of oil. Present governments are largely powerless to reduce the cost of oil. They can try to release SPR reserves all they want, but it is all in vain. Their damage to the industry has been devastating, particularly in Alberta. This is one more reason why I am staying leveraged to Canadian oil producers at the moment, as they still have a lot of catching up to do from the terrible smackdown.
The high cost of oil today is becoming a bigger problem for governments trying to deal with rising inflation, and is an 'in your face' daily stark consequence of their failed war that they are waging on fossil fuels, with a poorly executed energy policy. This embarrassment now presents an obvious but difficult target for them to try to bring down to control inflation.
The energy policies they are still undertaking to reduce oil production will only cause it to become even more costly. Companies are cautious to spend the hard to find capital that is needed to maintain production, let alone grow it. Shale is seen to be increasing, but nowhere near previous levels and rates. Globally, oil and product inventories continue to deplete when they should be building, and demand is growing while supply reaches maximum capacity limits. We are clearly not able to execute an transition as fast as they think. I say it should be called an energy addition, not an energy transition.
Ironically, Trudeau and Biden may one day go down in history as the best friends the industry ever had, propelling the stock prices of oil producers to levels far beyond what pro oil production governments ever could manage.
Currently, their policies are causing the highest oil prices possible, and ESG financing constraints are forcing producers to become leaner, paying down debt, and strengthen balance sheets, so that they are eventually able to be in a position to organically provide their own capital and acheiving a higher level of self financing independent of the draconian costly demands of the banks. At the same time they are generating dividends and share buybacks. They seem to be on their way to become cash flow monsters of a new petro era.
One day beyond my lifetime, oil may become too scarce and valuable to burn as a normal fuel, it's main use becoming an industrial feedstock for everything we make. Geologically, it is a finite resource on this planet, and we are consuming it at an unsustainable rate. I can't imagine what life will be like 100 years from now as we use up most of the resources on this planet, but I'm sure it won't be anything like it is now. Looking around here in Northern Thailand, it seems every flat or slight sloped piece of land has been cleared and has a crop of rice or corn on it, and only the mountainous areas are jungle. Now the land for food is being filled in with houses. Not hard to see where this is all going.
So, I digressed from my reply about the forthcoming rate hike, and gave my take on things.
However, I am sure Experienced has some good thoughts and his impressions on Fed policy that we would like to hear as well.
mrbb wrote: if rate hike gonna drag down the economy, then why would the fed hike rate?
if inflation need to be quenched, why the fed didn't raise rate at their Jan 26-27 fed meeting? Why wait for March meeting, if any?
That's why i said SU should reinforce its balance sheet with debt payment and share buyback.
angelnicky wrote: due to slowing economy with high interest rates
D’Souza acknowledged that higher interest rates will boost the banks’ net interest margins, or the difference between what they charge for loans and what they pay in interest on deposits. However, he said that those higher rates will eventually drag down economic growth and create renewed risk for the banks’ loan books.