The Crude Facts
Weekly Oil Charts
TD Investment Conclusion
In the following charts, we summarize the key oil data-points for the global crude oil supply/demand outlook. We highlight the following weekly trends:
1) Bullish inventory report: The EIA reported a bullish, unexpected crude inventory draw vs. consensus, that was also larger than yesterday's API data. Gasoline inventories saw a bullish, unexpected draw, while distillate inventories saw a slightly smaller-than-expected draw. Total U.S. refined product demand bounced back above the trailing-five-year band yet again (Exhibit 4). With several regions recently lifting travel restrictions (e.g. U.K., Australia), global demand could see a further boost, in our view.
2) OPEC+ production falls short of target output, yet again: A Platts survey showed that OPEC+ January production was 700 mbbl/d below its targeted output, pushing compliance rate to 121%. The group has failed to meet targeted output every month since agreeing to increase output by 400 mbbl/d per month in August.
3) New York state pension fund to sell half of its U.S. shale oil and gas holdings:
This same fund announced its intention to divest $7bln of Canadian oil sands stocks last year. It now plans to shed oil-weighted companies such as Pioneer and Hess, while keep select gas-weighted companies like CNX and EQT.