RE:James 100% always do your homeworkBayStreetWolfTO wrote: Don't follow pumpers or bashers look at the data
FYI...yes massive 20%+ increase in rigs from August 2021 to February 2022 see below change in rigs and production impact....
Feb 4th 2022
Lower 48 US production 11.1mbpd
US Oil rig count 497
Versus
August 27th, 2021
Lower US production 11.1 mbpd
US Oil rig count 410
Increase in rig count 21% August 2021 to Feb 2022
Increase in Oil production 0% August 2021 to February 2022
But agreed always do your homework.
what you really need to understand is the rig counts and the frac spread and I'd argue the frac spread is more important. You need the frac spread crews to bring wells on line. All drilling does is it adds to the DUC count. What's more challenging to quantify with data that is available (perhaps it's out there, I haven't found it) is there's high decline rates in shale wells and there are less sweet spot drilling locations. I've read many in the industry say that the primo drill locations have been largely used up. I can't quantify that, but I've read it often enough from industry veterans.
so even with a ton of investment, which isn't really happening at required levels, the shale patch likely isn't able to get output to pre COVID levels and maintain it there. Then you get OPEC. The gap between production and quota continues to widen every month. They raise quota 400 k a day every month. But they aren't seemingly able to raise production by that amount. At 90 dollar oil they are certainly invented to pump to quota levels. The most logical conclusion to me is they can't hit quotas.