Surge is dedicated to their model...PC has stated that he has never had a company with as much FCF as Surge has right now. If you take current spot prices, it's ~$200M... while $85 = $175M, $80 = $150M and $75 = $130M.
Using the $130M figure, Surge could easily institute a dividend of $35M and still have $95M of FCF. With this they can add a growth wedge of 2.5%, in the vicinity of $15M - 20M, plus a share buyback. Surge has no desire to be a big growth company... they have indicated they want to stay disciplined... to stay in the low part of the decline curve.
According to PC, the NAV of Surge is ~$18/share proved and probable and that's at a $70 flat price deck, which is what Sproule is using, so NAV would be much higher at current strip.
Surge has indicated the following plan with priorities as follows... the mix or order may change but it doesn't change the fact that as of today, they're pushing out a 35% yield to its shareholders.
1. a dividend of ~$35M
2. a modest growth wedge of ~2.5%
3. a share buyback every quarter
4. a "special" dividend, spiced in... NOTE: PC has indicated that if commodity price is higher than Surge's budget estimate, then maybe every quarter would have a "special" dividend, similar to what TOU has done recently.
As I mentioned previously, Surge has no desire to be a big growth company... their love their model. They have a 14 year inventory... they want the dividend, the "special" dividend and the share buyback but no big growth. They are not interested in changing their spots at this point in time... they are dedicated to their model.