RE:Oil trading above $95, all oil stocks down Wildfury, my thoughts are the Russia issue is a distraction to the true story. While geopolitics are often short-term....this takes attention away from the true issue with oil prices which is supply demand.
My hope is this goes on for another 2-4 weeks...getting us closer to spring (without people talking about the supply side)....this buys us time.
People think the price is moving due to the Russia issue. While this has helped move prices up the true reason for long-term oil to move is supply and demand...and capex (or lack of investment) as mentioned by OPEC this morning. This continues to be the driver.
But this is a good distraction for now and provides GREAT cash flow on a daily basis...
I tend to think Eric is bang on here...Ukraine and Iran moving the market in a seesaw direction but....long term this is still about supply in my opinion and as presented by many.
Read also the note from Michael Tran...another one I like to listen too.
Eric Nuttall@ericnuttall
Yes, oil is vulnerable to a modest pullback on a Ukrainian resolution or Iranian deal, but don't be distracted by short-termism. The structural bull market in oil has been 7 years in the making...and equally will take many years to come to an end. Volatility = opportunity.
Wildfury wrote:
Nothing makes sense in the oil patch, trading at $95 and all stocks are down?