RE:RE:RE:WOW... What a Q4'21 Sneek Peek and 2022 Look Ahead Report!! Well prior to this, they were expecting 2022 production to be 70kpbd. In October they were basically there and then tacked on whack of wells in Q4 and only brought a percentage of those online.
Lets just look at the Dec - Dec production, because I would be surprised if they weren't already at 75kbpd+. In some of my discussions they were planning on having the deep basin basically filled by this time.
So taking 72.5 for an exit for 2021, and then just taking the 1P type curve they used to generate the 2021/2022 guidance, they were expecting to get 8kbpd for $300MM.
Assuming they don't get better drilling results like they did in Q4 and they just get what they hoped for with prior guidance for drilling/declines; then you are looking at north of 80kbpd without factoring the extra wells they added to guidance.
I think even this may be low when factoring in better than expected results and the wells they drilled in Q4 but are bringing onstream now.