RE:RE:RE:Be readyAwarded wrote: Not so sure I would try to sell Haile. Gold production in 2021 at Haile was 190,000 ounces with an average gold price of $1801 and an AISC of $1060. That is an AISC margin of $741/ounce. That margin is better than Macraes ($396) and Wahi ($308). Although with its own problems, Haile is contributing to cash flow and profit.
Haile can be even more profitable if the environmental permits come through. I do not know why any other firm could run Haile more efficiently (although there have been missteps along the way.
By my calculations, Oceanagold’s 2021 revenue should somewhere near $695 million (consolidated sales of 381,600 ounces at $1821) at an AISC of $476 million (381,600 at $1247). The difference ($219 million) should cover corporate costs and yield a profit.
Nonetheless, like DirkStHouse, I expect a paper loss for Q4. Revenue should be somewhere near $190 million (105,300 ounces at $1806) and AISC of 140 million. The difference ($50 million will not be sufficient to cover the net impairment of $102 million ($181 for Haile less an $79 reversal for Didipio).
For the full year, the $219 million mentioned above will cover the $102 impairment for the quarter and leave a profit.
I suspect Oceana management delayed reversing the Didipio impairment in Q3 because they knew they would be making a Haile impairment in Q4.
Ahh, if only we could use the past to forecast the future, we would all be very rich.
It is Haile`s forecast AISC ( much higher) that is the concern, along with the uncertainity of permitting, as well as the continuing use of precious cash for capital non substaining costs.
The price of gold, in a rate rising enviroment, also could be a concern for a mine with high forecast AISC. We can all be hopeful for Haile, but be very thankful for Didipio, as well as the promise in the NZ operations for the future.
Haile has merits and is definitely worth a lot if its problems can be addressed, but I can assure you if someone was to offer OGC even 75% of what Haile shows on the books, in cash, right now, the stock would go up 25% IMMEDIATELY.