Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

RE:RE:Shout To Baywolf: What About Libya?

[JohnnyDoe]

BayStreetWolfTO wrote: Good evening Lee, from what I have read the potential Marsa el-Hariga disruption may impact 200,000 bpd.

That said I don't put too much of a factor on this personally as I would expect limited impact or quick resolution.

Where did you see Libya was 1.2m bpd as maybe I have the wrong numbers?

Regarding Iran, I have read countless articles and discussions on Iran exports which have ramped considerably. Reuters reported a few days ago that exports (what they are willing to tell us) have increased to over 1 million bpd an embarrassment for Biden. However many feel this is much higher and still you have large secret operations to move oil out of Iran undetected.

Some feel the market probably needs the oil given the coming supply challenges.

I believe OPEC+ missed their quota in January by at record 700k bpd as reported by S&P Global....but the media will drive the narrative at some point until we come full circle back to inventory and supply/demand.

Whether it is OPEC or non-OPEC Capex was slashed for years. That will take years to fix.

I don't see the eco woke giving up or the majors ignoring pressure from the eco woke to transition to renewables. Costs are increasing, supplies to drill and labor decreasing and Capex budgets for 2022 established.

While some political agencys dream of unicorns and dancing elephants...with lofty projections of increased supply...many of those bodies have been proven dead wrong month after month.

I could continue to ramble but I think I am getting away from Libya and Iran question lol. Cheers

Leewardcape wrote: There goes maybe 1.2 million bbls/day of high grade 40-degee API oil...if they implode...cancels out any and all Iranian increases.. me thinks?

I like to think Wolf that the eco woke have had their day. The EU declaring in December that nuclear and natural gas are green initiatives is imo the beginning of the end for eco woke. Energy security is real and the EU gas shortages this winter likely have the Euros thinking long and hard. The eco wokes will lose their board seats and the euro majors will pivot. In the US, smoking Joe is in the crapper. Americans don't like paying big money for gas. I don't think he has a chance at a 2nd term. I think it's going to lead to more level heads about climate change and I'd like to think we're going to enter a period of engineering driven ideas as opposed to political ideas before it's too late and we hand over energy security to the various tyrannys around the world
and even with that, I think we're still looking at a major oil super cycle because it's going to take a long time to solve the demand supply equation