Noranda Income Fund Unit T.NIF.UN

RE:NIF financials

[Bigbird9999]

What to expect....
$3 - 4 million bump in revenue driven by higher LME price in Q4.  Year 2021 LME ~$1.36. ($3000/t) Year 2021 similar to last year earnings. 

I expect that they will downplay the positive conditions that are lining up for 2022.  Guidance should be >270,000 t as the new cooling and residue handling start up in May.  Stars are aligning for a really good year for NIF
 
LME 3 month is $3600 and Dec 22 is $3200 indicating  >$3300 for the year 2022.  This adds $10 million to FCF.  TC average for 2021 was ~$120 (benchmark at $160 and spot at $80) in order to generate the reported earnings.  All indications are that the 2022 bench mark will settle around $200 and spot about the same.  So 2022 TC could be anywhere from $160 to $200.  This adds $25 - $50  million to the FCF (after meeting all cash requirements) available for distributions.

So total available for distribution in 2022 could be $30 - $65 million USD.  Of course they will delay as long as possible citing need to build reserves, reduce debt, blah blah blah.  and they will attempt to hide it in their convoluted, complex financiial statements that cherry pick the most unfavourable data based on price and production data that is 3 - 5 months old.

I am cautiously optimistic but I have been here many times before in the last few years
BB