Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Wow

[jfm1330]

There is a big difference between results on advanced refractory cancers on humans and preclinical results involving minuscule xenogratft tumors on mice. A majority of cancer drugs are unable to make the succesful step from preclinical to phase II, they either never go to phase I, or they die there . A clear proof of concept would mean TH1902 would reach phase II. 

SPCEO1 wrote: I can defintely see the drug industry getting excited by good results on efficacy but I am not convinced how fast that would translate to the stock price. Pfizer will know of the results relatively quickly but it may take longer for the results to be known by the rest of the drug industry. Soleus was unaware of TH until they attended that big cancer conference two years ago. The Chinese company expressing interest in partnerring with TH likely became aware of TH-1902 due to the journal article published on it last Fall. It seems to me it often takes quite a bit of time for such info about a tiny company like TH to make its way through the normal conference and journal channels to others in the industry. Perhaps this is different, however.
Maybe more industry eyes are looking for the press release as they have already been alerted to the possibility of something really big going on.

But one thing is for sure, investors are not aware of it and are not anxiously awaiting the press release as indicated by the minisule trading volume today. It is a big concern that there is so little investor anticipation of what next week's conference call might contain.
 

jfm1330 wrote: It will all depend on the quality of the efficacy results, if there is any efficacy. If they have efficacy signs that are good enougn to confirm a proof of concept, then I am sure the news will spread among investors interested in oncology and other companies. Be sure Pfizer will be aware of that, but other players too. The importance of a proof of concept is huge because then, the interest would not only be for TH1902, but for the plarform and all the possible new PDCs you could develop out of it. If there is efficacy with TH1902, docetaxel will be the limiting factor. In other words, TH1902 cannot be more effective than what docetaxel will allow in refractory cancer on which docetaxel alone is not effective. But with a proof of concept, the most valuable asset will be TH19P01, not TH1902.

Again, the only real approved PDC is Lutathera, and it does not have a linker that is selectively cleaved inside cancer cells. So TH1902 would become a premium asset in that regard. To be clear, proof of concept on a few patients in phase Ia would be far from approval, but still, it would be a very important milestone derisking this whole program.

SPCEO1 wrote: It is worth reminding everyone that 950 Stocktwits followers is a disastrously low number in the first place. The vast majority of smaller stocks like TH have many times more followers. TH has been just awful at managing this part of their business, which is unfortunate since they seem to have done pretty well in most other aspects of their business. I am not sure they even fully realize it is something they need to actively manage since they do not seem to try to do so on a consistent basis. 

My big fear is we get the best case scenario next week and the stock barely reacts. Why would it react since the analysts who cover TH are not big players in cancer, 2 out of 3 are Canadian where TH has already burned all of its bridges, and where 2 out of three are mostly mad at TH and will not do any work on the stock unless they are forced to. Who is going to tell the TH story to investors who might actually want to listen and buy in size thereby moving the stock price higher? So, we run the risk of getting good results but also a share issue at a low price yet again because management has not dealt with this issue even after being battered about the head and shoulders repeatedly with a big Stockhouse.com club for a considerable period of time by major shareholders, most notably myself. Another tidbit from the meetings with large shareholders was a comment made that they are hoping Soleus will spread the good word about TH to their friends. If that is their strategy, we are likely in for more disappointment.   

Wino115 wrote: Other indicators confirm that they've lost some of the already tiny audience.  Stockwits peaked around 950 or so and is at 933.  Posts here had popped back to the 130-150 read level (still way off the old highs of close to 200) and now the meaty posts are 90-100. Interest has faded. 

LSA got them over the visual and verbal communication issues they had. It will be up to them to  put together all the trial info and discussions they've had into a coherant forward-looking strategy that provides investors a means to figure out if there's a future for SORT1+ Platform, NASH, etc... and what that future may look like. Hopefully they can update those 1-2 year milestone timelines they have in the book and put some meat around them.

They can stil tell us what the plan is once the MTD is figured out.  We don't need a level, but tell us if you've talked with FDA and are sticking to the 4 tumors, 40 patients. What's changed around the next step.  I'm sure there's various scenarios they can at least provide us a framework on how they are thinking about it.

By the way, in the KOL transcript for the Ovarian Endo talk I posted about, the doctor said that it's now pretty standard at Mass General that they run a tumor sample genetic test and know all the various genetic expression levels prior to talking about any treatment options. She made it sound like that was more or less standard now at any cancer oriented hospital setting. I may be wrong, but wouldn't that be where you'd find Sort1 levels too, as opposed to staining?

SPCEO1 wrote: It is nearly 1PM and less than 4,000 shares have traded in THTX today. With an important conference call next Thursday where there is a chance the company might give us a substantive update on the phase 1a, the lack of interest in the stock highlights management's utter failure in calling investors attention to the stock. It seems to me that management has done a pretty good job on most other fronts, but has really not even come close to figuring out how to manage the narrative investors hear about THTX. Of course, if you go several months saying nothing, there is not much managing that can be done! 

Nevertheless, as JFM repeatedly reminds us, the data will move the stock. But it would move further if TH got its act together in the all important area of cultivating an interested audience in the stock who was prepared to react in a big way to any big news the company shares.